railton2 - 232 PAUL HUMPHREYS . . PETER RAILTON I emphasize...

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232 PAUL HUMPHREYS . . I emphasize here that the difficulty is one of actual causal interaction and not one of deficient statistical methodology. The full formulation of abnormic laws is given in Bromberger [1966]. The widespread use of such laws indicates, I think, that the conditions imposed by Cartwright on causal laws in [1979] p. 423 are too strong. Bromberger. s.! 1966, 'Why-Questions' in Mind and Cosmos:Essays in Contemporary Science an4 Philosophy, University of Pittsburgh Series in the Philosophy of Science, VO~. 111, R. Colodny (ed.), University of Pittsburgh Press, 1966. Cartwright, N. 1979, 'Causal Laws and Effective Strategies', Noh 13, 419-437. Fetzer, J.: 194, b 'A Single-Case Propensity Theory of Explanation', Synthese 28, 171-198. 1 Grunbaum, A.: 1962, 'The Asymmetry of Retrodictability and Predictability, the Compossibility of' Explanation of the Past and prediction of the Future, and Mechanism vs. Teleology' Ch. 9 in Philosophical Problems of Space and Time (2nd Edition), D. Reidel, Dordrecht, 1973. Hempel, C.: 1965, Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philoso- e, The Free Press, New York. 'Maximal Specificity and Lawlikeness in Probabilistic Explanation' phil. Sci. 35,' 116-133. Humphreys, P.: 1980, 'Cutting the Causal Chain', Pacific Phil. Quarterly 61, 305-314. Jeffrey, R.: 1971, 'Statistical Explanation vs. Statistical Inference', 19-28 in Salmon [1971a]. Originally published in Essays in Honor of Carl G. Hempel, N. Rescher et al. (eds.), D. ~4de1, Dordrecht, 1969. Mellor, D. H.: 11976, 'Probable Explanation', Austr. J. Phil. 54, 231-241. Mill, J. S.: 1874, A System of Logic (8th Edition), Harper and Bros., New York. Railton, P.: l976,'A Deductive-Nomological Theory of Probabilistic Explanation' Phil. Sci. 45,206$226. ~eichenbach,!H.: 1956, The Direction of Time, University of California, Berkeley. Salmon, W.: 1971a, Statistical Explanation and Statistical Relevance, W. Salmon et. al., University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh. Salmon, W.: 197lb, 'Statistical Explanation', in Salmon [1971a], pp. 29-87. Originally published in Nature and Function of Scientific Theories, R. Colodny (ed.), University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh, 1970, pp. 173-231. Salmon, W.: 1978, 'Why ask "Why"? Proc. and Addr. of the Amer. Phil. Assn. 51, 683-705. Reprinted in Hans Reichenbach: Logical Empiricist, W. Salmon (ed.), D. Reidel. ~ordrecht, 1979, pp. 403425. Salmon, W.: $981. 'Causality: Production and Propagation' in PSA 1980, Vol. 2, P. Asouith and R. Giere (eds.), Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, 1981. . - skyr;s, B.: 1b80, Causal Necessity, Yale University Press, New Haven. Suppes, P.: 1970, A Probabilistic Theory of Causality, North-Holland, New York. PETER RAILTON PROBABILITY, EXPLANATION, AND INFORMATION' INTRODUCTION Elsewhere I have argued that probabilistic explanation, properly so called, is the explanation of things that happen by chance: the outcomes of irreducibly probabilistic proce~ses.~ Probabilistic explanation proceeds, I claimed, by producing a law-based demon- stration that the explanandum phenomenon had a particular prob- ability of obtaining and noting that, by chance, it did obtain. This account will presented in more detail below, but the bulk of this paper will be given over to a discussion of two large problems confronting such a view: (1)
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This note was uploaded on 08/01/2008 for the course PHIL 290 taught by Professor Fitelson during the Fall '06 term at Berkeley.

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railton2 - 232 PAUL HUMPHREYS . . PETER RAILTON I emphasize...

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