hajek_handout

hajek_handout -...

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Probabilities-of-Conditionals-as-Conditional Probabilities and Desire-as-Belief Alan Hájek “Stalnaker’s Hypothesis”, “the Equation” (bad names!) Some parallels to Desire-as-Belief (Lewis, quantifiers, triviality results, fighting back, more triviality results…) Why care about the Equation? o Stalnaker o Adams o de Finetti o Judy Benjamin Why believe the Equation? o It sounds right o Ramsey’s test o Adams’ thesis o Stalnaker validity o Adams’ probabilistic soundness Why disbelieve: sources of suspicion o Material conditional o Probabilistic conditional excluded middle o Causal decision theory, and my suspicions Four quantified versions Lewis’ triviality results Fighting back: o Import-export o van Fraassen, and indexicality o Domain-shrinking o Approximate equality, going vague Hájek’s perturbation argument Fighting back: o Radical indexicality o Restrictions on compounds involving Hájek’s wallflower argument: an example, and overview
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