stalnaker_lance - Stalnaker and Lance on Import-Export...

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Stalnaker and Lance on Import-Export (If-And) Branden Fitelson October 12, 2004 import-export law (what Bennett calls “If-And”). This is the principle which says that Pr p A Ñ p B Ñ C qq Pr pp A B q Ñ C q Note: given The Equation (which is assumed in this context), this is equivalent to Pr p C | A B q Pr p A Ñ C | B q Bennett discusses the example of Stalnaker and Lance in § 40. I think his response is erent conclusion). Below, I will present their analyses, along with my commentary / alternative analysis. The Example : There are 2 urns containing 100 balls each with the following constitutions Urn 1: 90 red iron balls and 10 green copper balls Urn 2: 90 green iron balls and 10 red copper balls Agnes picks an urn at random, draws a ball ( a ) out, and returns the ball without noting its color or composition. Then she draws a second ball ( b ) from the same urn. Let Ra : the first ball she picked was red. Gb
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This note was uploaded on 08/01/2008 for the course PHIL 290 taught by Professor Fitelson during the Fall '06 term at University of California, Berkeley.

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stalnaker_lance - Stalnaker and Lance on Import-Export...

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