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stalnaker_lance

# stalnaker_lance - Stalnaker and Lance on...

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Stalnaker and Lance on Import-Export (If-And) Branden Fitelson October 12, 2004 Stalnaker and Lance (S&L) give what they claim to be a counterexample to the probabilistic import-export law (what Bennett calls “If-And”). This is the principle which says that Pr A B C Pr A & B C Note: given The Equation (which is assumed in this context), this is equivalent to Pr C A & B Pr A C B Bennett discusses the example of Stalnaker and Lance in § 40. I think his response is inadequate, and I also think the analyses of S&L and Bennett are incorrect. However, I think there is a way to bolster the argument of S&L (for a slightly di ff erent conclusion). Below, I will present their analyses, along with my commentary / alternative analysis. The Example : There are 2 urns containing 100 balls each with the following constitutions Urn 1: 90 red iron balls and 10 green copper balls Urn 2: 90 green iron balls and 10 red copper balls Agnes picks an urn at random, draws a ball ( a ) out, and returns the ball without noting its color or composition. Then she draws a second ball ( b ) from the same urn. Let Ra : the first ball she picked was red.

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stalnaker_lance - Stalnaker and Lance on...

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