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Vital rates in demographic PVAs 2006

# Vital rates in demographic PVAs 2006 - transitions is...

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Uncertainty in deterministic lambda 2 2 , ( ) ( ) x x x ij ij i j x x SE SE f f a S f f

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Sampling error in demographic estimates Some of the among-year variance in observed demography will be due to sampling error Need to correct for this First cut: similar approach as for count- based PVA
Simple variance correction 2 ( ) 2 , 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 ( ) ( ) 1 1 1 ( ) ( ) i m t n n C i i i i j i t t j i i n i i t i V f f t f f t f t n n m t m t V f V f t n m t

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More sophisticated approach Solve the following: Find CI by replacing 1 with 2 1 ( ) 1 1 1 ( ) ( ) n i i t C i i f t f n V f V f t 2 2 1, 1, , 1 1 U L n n n n
Growth rates Sampling distribution of growth

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Unformatted text preview: transitions is multinomial Treat as a sequence of binomial processes Stochastic simulations with demographic stochasticity For each individual, draw random numbers to determine fate, with parameter given by the corresponding mean vital rate Survival: binomial Growth: sequence of binomials Fecundity: Poisson? Adding environmental stochasticity Each year, the mean vital rate is drawn at random Binomial variables: Use beta distribution Fertility: lacking other info, use log-normal Introducing correlations is not trivial, but can be done...
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Vital rates in demographic PVAs 2006 - transitions is...

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