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Density-independent count-based PVA 2008

Density-independent count-based PVA 2008 -...

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Density-Independent Count- Based PVA 16 January 2008
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Stochastic exponential growth Most likely future population size: Probability distribution of future population size log-normally distributed, with variance increasing with time Want to know probability of falling below QE threshold by some time t 0 t t G N N λ =
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Deterministic & Stochastic population growth
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Model assumptions No density dependence No demographic stochasticity No catastrophes or bonanzas No environmental autocorrelation No changes in mean or variance of growth rate No sampling error
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Parameters of the model 2 log Mean growth rate var( ) var(log ) Variance in growth rate Current population size QE thresh G i i C X r r N N μ λ σ λ = = = = old log log "Distance" to QE threshold C X d N N = -
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Mean and variance of future population size Log population size Mean: Variance: Population size Mean: Variance: ( 29 ( 29 ( 29 2 2 2 2 /2 2 / 2 log 1 C t C t t N t t N e e e μ σ μ σ σ μ σ + + + +
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Extinction statistics Probability of ultimate extinction
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