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Homework2 2008

Homework2 2008 - issues 1 Should the “after” portion of...

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Homework 2: Count-based PVA ESM 211 Due Wed. Jan. 30, 2008 A striking management change for the Yellowstone grizzly bear population was the closing of the park dumps in 1970-71. A major tourist attraction, the dumps attracted bears in search of food, and led to much greater encounter rates between bears and humans (including cars and dogs). By closing the dumps and discouraging people from feeding the bears, the park service hoped to move the bears back into their native habitat where they would suffer less from human interaction and poor nutrition. The question you are to address is, “Did closing the dumps improve the population viability of the Yellowstone grizzly bear?” To answer this question, consider the following specific
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Unformatted text preview: issues: 1. Should the “after” portion of the data start immediately in 1971? Why or why not? 2. Let “before” end in 1970 (i.e., don’t count the 1970-71 transition), and “after” start in 1977. Did closing the dumps significantly increase μ ? 3. Using the before and after estimates of μ and σ 2 from the previous question, quantify the reduction in extinction risk associated with closing the dumps, using whatever measure(s) you find appropriate. Justify your choice of starting population size (should you use the same sizes for the two scenarios?), as well as your choice of risk measures. Don’t forget to take into account uncertainty in the parameter estimates....
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