class11_w08

class11_w08 - How much oil is there? "Hubbert's...

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How much oil is there? “Hubbert’s peak” – geologist M. King Hubbert, in 1950’s, correctly predicted a US oil production peak in 1970
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USA Lower 48 – Oil Discovery and Production Oil depletion in the US shows a 42 year gap between peak discovery and peak production. No new large fields found since early 1980s. As goes the US, so goes the world?
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Worldwide: growing gap between oil discovery and production Green vertical bars depict years where Discoveries exceeded Production. The red bars show years where Discoveries were less than Production Current ratio – 4 barrels consumed for every new barrel of oil found
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World Conventional Oil Global oil production has been essentially flat since about 2000 The world is on a plateau – where the US alone was in about 1970
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All Hydrocarbons Peak
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Alternative view – CERA – Cambridge Energy Research Associates Claim 3x greater reserves than most other analysts Optimism that much more of the “resource” will become a “reserve” Total # Barrels
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The Hydrocarbon Age
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Some statistics on conventional oil Total world conventional oil reserves in 1780 ~ 2 trillion barrels (2 x 10 12 ) 1780 – Watt develops the steam engine; Industrial Revolution starts Total world conventional oil reserves remaining (2005) ~ 1 trillion barrels Yearly rate of world oil consumption ~ 31 billion barrels (31 x 10 9 ) Daily rate ~ 85 million barrels burned per day Consumption in the United States : US burns 25% of all the oil (and all energy use) in the world US % of total world population (6.6 billion) = 4.6% Should we drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge? Alaskan oil yields – most optimistic estimates are for 1 million barrels per day starting in about 10 years Present US consumption ~ 18 million barrels per day Potential net gain – 6% increase in oil availability Potential net loss – Alaskan environmental damage
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Coal-Derived Fuels -make the coal cleaner by increasing the H/C ratio Hydrogasification : C + 2 H 2 CH 4 [T = 800°C; H = -75 kJ/mol] At high T, reaction proceeds in the reverse direction Methanation of CO: CO + 3 H
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This note was uploaded on 08/06/2008 for the course CHEM 123 taught by Professor Perona during the Winter '08 term at UCSB.

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class11_w08 - How much oil is there? "Hubbert's...

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