esm223_08_Aelbrecht

esm223_08_Aelbrecht - Framework to analyze Risk of Climate...

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Framework to analyze Risk of Climate Change on Water and Energy Sustainability Denis AELBRECHT – Electricité de France (EDF) Robert GOLDSTEIN – EPRI Carl CHEN, Joel HERR, Laura WEINTRAUB & Limin CHEN – Systech Engineering
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Slide 2 Framework to Analyze Risk of Climate Change on Water and Energy Sustainability – D. Aelbrecht et al. Western Energy-Water Forum, Santa Barbara, March 2007 Or subtitle 1 … How to translate the uncertainty of climate change predictions to long-term physical or regulatory water shortage risk that affects power generation ?
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Slide 3 Framework to Analyze Risk of Climate Change on Water and Energy Sustainability – D. Aelbrecht et al. Western Energy-Water Forum, Santa Barbara, March 2007 Or subtitle 2 … How and when to make sure we get the right Umbrella ?
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Slide 4 Framework to Analyze Risk of Climate Change on Water and Energy Sustainability – D. Aelbrecht et al. Western Energy-Water Forum, Santa Barbara, March 2007 Generation/demand balance increasingly challenged under climatic events : example of 2003 & 2006 european heat waves impact in France Purchase 0 10000 30000 40000 50000 National Load + Contractual commitments Available Power 60000 70000 58 000 - 3 000 Power MWe Demand Generation Load shedding Unvailable power for Thermal Env. compliance 3 000 8 000 +1 000 Unavailable power (maintenance)
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Slide 5 Framework to Analyze Risk of Climate Change on Water and Energy Sustainability – D. Aelbrecht et al. Western Energy-Water Forum, Santa Barbara, March 2007 Lessons learned from past US and EDF experiences : : A ssess A nticipate A dapt Research through partnership must help : Environmental assessment : assessing and managing climate- related physical or regulatory water shortage risks for power generation Technology development : investigating innovation in Technology & Operation to reduce our current and future exposures to these risks : – Improved and Advanced Cooling Technologies project Our focus here EDF-EPRI “Water-Climate” partnership
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Slide 6 Framework to Analyze Risk of Climate Change on Water and Energy Sustainability – D. Aelbrecht et al. Western Energy-Water Forum, Santa Barbara, March 2007 Long-term Water shortage risk : Climate is one of many drivers … … among other : • Population growth and energy needs evolution • Technology evolution • Regulatory evolution • Economical factors
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Slide 7 Framework to Analyze Risk of Climate Change on Water and Energy Sustainability – D. Aelbrecht et al. Western Energy-Water Forum, Santa Barbara, March 2007 Climate variability / Climate change : A lot of uncertainties … Many different long-term climate projections Poor agreement on Precipitation change patterns among GCM’s projections Intera-annual variability : El Nino (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Impact of Climate Change on Extremes ?
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This note was uploaded on 08/06/2008 for the course ESM 235 taught by Professor Dunne during the Winter '08 term at UCSB.

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esm223_08_Aelbrecht - Framework to analyze Risk of Climate...

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