esm223_08_Lecture_Notes_NBfinal_rev_post - ESM223 Winter...

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Unformatted text preview: ESM223, Winter 2008, Norm Brown Lecture 8 Water, Energy and Global Climate Change (Focus the Nation today) Beyond "Awareness" What are the changes to water supply, quality and reliability from climate change Characterizing water resources Peaks, volumes, rates ... Defining relevant parameters Priorities & Costs Part 1: The Nature of the Change Impacts to Water Resources Dettinger, 2007 Aelbrecht, 2007 Aelbrecht, 2007 During the past 30 years--and in the near-term future--natural climate variability has been augmented by warming trends associated with increases in the global greenhouse effect. Climate-model simulations of global-average temperature Natural forcings suffice Observed Greenhouse emissions required Meehl et al., 2004 As a result of these trends, the warm-season fraction of annual streamflow has declined. Sum of natural flows from 8 major rivers in the Sierra Nevada Roos, 1989, 1991; Dettinger and Cayan, 1995; Stewart et al 2005 DWR Technical Memorandum Report July, 2006 Francis Chung Jamie Anderson Mike Anderson Levi Brekke (USBR) Dan Easton Messele Ejeta Michael Floyd Guido Franco (CEC) Alan Olson Morteza Orang Michael Perrone Roy Peterson Maury Roos Richard Snyder (UCD) David Todd Russell Yaworsky (USBR) Hongbing Yin climatechange.cfm EXECUTIVE ORDER S-3-05 June 1, 2005 Recognizes global climate change and its impacts on California. Establishes aggressive greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for the State. Requires biennial assessments of climate change impacts and the development of impact mitigation/adaptation plans. Requires the formation of an interagency team to implement the Governor's Order. Climate Change Impacts on California's Water Resources Reduced snowpack Earlier snowmelt results in increased flood control demand on reservoir space Higher water temperatures impacts ecosystem Sea level rise impacts the Delta, threatens levees and increases salinity Part 2: Energy Linkages to Water Resources Hydropower Impacts Increased vulnerability Low flow requirements Competing demands (envt'l, ag, M&I ...) Snow-melting driven systems (vs) rainfall-driven systems Analogy with SWP and the Delta U.S. Fresh and Saline Water Withdrawals* in 2000 for Thermoelectric Use: 195,000 Mgal/day Fresh surface water 135,000 (69.2%) Thermoelectric power (steam-driven turbines*) 195,000 Once-through fresh surface water 119,000 00 Closed-loop, fresh surface water 16,3 Saline surface water 59,500* (30.5%) Closed Once-through saline surface water 58,000 Closed-loop, saline surface water 1,530 -loop, fresh g round water 409 g Fresh ro und w ) 9 (0.2% a t e r 40 Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Circular 1268, Tables 12 and 13. *Does not include geothermal or the thermoelectric-power withdrawals for Hawaii. Note: Numbers shown may not add to totals because of independent rounding. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, May 2004 Water Demand for Power Plant Cooling MVPP Cooling towers represent 85% to 90% of the water demand of a power plant. For the MVPP configuration, approximately 33% of the power is derived by steam so water demand relative to a typical Rankine Cycle plant is much less. At full load, MVPP loses ~3,300 gpm of water to evaporation from the cooling towers. Reclaimed Water for Power Plant Cooling MVPP About 40 years ago, the City of Burbank started using municipal effluent for cooling tower make-up. 10 years ago, there were a handful of power plants in the US using treated municipal effluent mostly in the Southwest, Texas and Florida. Today, there are hundreds of power plants using treated effluent for cooling tower make-up. There are a few plants that completely utilize treated effluent, e.g. Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (Arizona), Magnolia Power Plant (Burbank) and MVPP. Water Sources MVPP Reclaimed Water..... City of Redlands Title 22 treated municipal effluent Reclaimed water is not without significant operating issues mineral scale & corrosion potential ~50% of plant water in 2006 @ MVPP Usage to increase in future years Perchlorate-contaminated groundwater (plant wells in the mid aquifer) Perchlorate is a very stable molecule Heat Recovery Steam Generator feedwater (deep aquifer) Groundwater..... This water is used for cooling tower make-up. MVPP is located in one of the few areas in California where groundwater is plentiful Cooling tower blowdown is treated for cooling re-use and general plant use. Plant wastewater (20% - 25% of water demand) is discharged to the Santa Ana Regional Interceptor (SARI) Fresh Groundwater..... A Brief Look at Energy Focus on both water used for electricity, and the Energy demands of water - conveyance - treatment (wastewater) Electricity Generation, Transmission and Distribution Losses Petroleum Hydrocarbons Petroleum is Transportation Transportation is Petroleum Where is the resource? Your top 3 (amount of reserves)? What's the largest US company? Ugly C Coal Carbon Combustion Concentration Consumption Conversion Conveyance Coalbed methane Carbon again Water! Part 3: Managing Water Resources in a Changing World Managing Shortage & Resource Scarcity Impacts to Water Quality Estimated U.S. Freshwater* Withdrawals in 2000: ~345,000 Mgal/day Source 27,300 59 Use Domestic self-supply 3,590 - Surface water 262,000 135,000 Public supply 43,300 16,140 Industrial/mining 20,510 83,387 Thermoelectric power 136,000 4,337 3,530 409 16,000- Ground water 83,300 Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Circular 1268, Tables 14. 58,970 Irrigation/livestock/ aquaculture 142,460 *In addition, 62,300 Mgal/day of saline water was withdrawn, primarily for thermoelectric use. Note: Numbers shown may not add to totals because of independent rounding. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, May 2004 Estimated California Freshwater* Withdrawals in 2000: 38,400 Mgal/day - Source 3,320 Use Domestic self-supply 286 29 19,507 349 - - Surface water 23,200 Public supply 6,120 8 Industrial/mining 212 Thermoelectric power 352 2572,800 204 3 Irrigation/livestock/ aquaculture 31,446 Ground water 15,200 11,940 Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Circular 1268, Tables 14. *In addition, 12,800 Mgal/day of saline water was withdrawn, primarily for thermoelectric power purposes. Note: Numbers shown may not add to totals because of independent rounding. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, May 2004 Accommodating GCC Institutional DWR, e.g. Project Review Local Districts commonly lead the way Valuation: carbon, efficiency, reliability, alternatives Back to the basics: what is the change? Supply Demand Water Quality ramifications Constituents Reliability Implications for Projects & Costs Local Examples Supplemental Water for Santa Maria basin Desal options Energy and Carbon considerations Typical for project of this scale Compare with Carlsbad project Is the difference just money? SWP options Consideration of future delivery modifications? Water Quality ramifications The Critical Role of Storage Existing climate in the Cordillera generates challenges for water resource management large transient stresses on system supply Existing increases in overall water demand GCC likely to exacerbate the characteristics that present difficulties for maintaining water quality and reliability What kind of storage options are there? The Critical Role of Storage Impacts to conjunctive use and artificial recharge Challenges at all scales Consider UWCD Consider the Delta Consider the Columbia River (cont'd) The Corollary Importance of ReUse Local resource (in-basin, or reasonably close to it) It's expensive to convey water over large distances! Reliability Degrees of degradation Reuse v. Desal, e.g. Modeling Tools Is complex model always needed? 1. No. 2. Complexity and accuracy needed varies with question being asked. 3. Purpose is "insight, not numbers" 4. Sometimes even a complex model will yield no insight 16 Good modeling can aid change 1. Water-Energy-Infrastructure systems are capital-intensive, long-lived, and legally-positioned 2. Hard to change their existence and operating policies 3. Models can identify promising alternatives and demonstrate their feasibility 17 Technology the Savior? What will the next generation of treatment technologies look like? Still using technologies developed 30-40 years ago New materials and new insights have not been applied water treatment Potential exists for major reduction of energy use for desalination Selective membranes could be developed for efficient treatment of impaired waters and for resource recovery Hydrophilic Hydrophobic Switchable surfaces Carbon nanotubes Artificial Ion channels Selective nanoporous membranes Nanoporous polycarbonate performs much better than commercial ED membranes e sm rou po no Na es ran mb Pilot testing at LLNL will begin soon using California Prop 50 funding Functionalize membranes to be selective for target species such as nitrate, arsenate, perchlorate or others Combine ion exchange and electrodialysis in one technology Legal, Institutional & Related Issues Transboundary problems Canada US Turkey Iraq Israel & Jordan Many others... In the western US: State Engineers and basin overdraft Prior Appropriation and changing environmental water needs/demands The slow response of natural groundwater systems to changing inputs Physical Solutions Costs, Practicability Part 4: Denouement Under what conditions, at what extremes, does it all break down? Sustainability. Sounds great, what does it mean? ...
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