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ISS 305 3.16.17 - Predictions Part 2 Climate Change and...

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Predictions Part 2: Climate Change and Weather Forecasts Issues with predictions: chaos, uncertainty, and out of sample predictions o Chaos: stuff is magnified with small errors o Complex: hard to predict things with multiple variables o Out of Sample: prediction based on wrong data Noise and signal – noisy data o Issue is explained by many variables, hard to see the causal trend Climate Change o Noisy data because of storms, droughts, greenhouse gases, etc. (and chaotic & uncertain) Armstrong vs Gore Bet: o Gore: earth is getting warmer; Armstrong: no evidence of global temperature changes o Average was closer to Armstrong, but not the variation o Armstrong was precise but not accurate, Gore was a bit more accurate but not precise Consensus o Consensus != unanimity o Consensus is an alternative to voting, unanimity is everyone o Problems: groupthink and herding Weather is short term, local, specific Uncertainty o Uncertainty != risk o Risk is measurable, uncertainty is not. Odds are unknown
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