# Exam 2 Fall 2016 - Quiz Submissions Test 2 Form A Attempt 1...

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Quiz Submissions - Test 2 - Form A Attempt 1 Written: Oct 5, 2016 6:31 PM - Oct 5, 2016 7:08 PM Submission View Released: Oct 28, 2009 12:01 AM Your test is now available for review. n 1 4 / 4 points The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be contained in the ____________ component. cyclical trend irregular seasonal
Question 2 4 / 4 points When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than smoothing, the previous smoothed value becomes the forecast. the current smoothed value becomes the forecast. the next smoothed value becomes the forecast. None of the above.
Question 3 4 / 4 points The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from time-series data: Model MAD Linear Trend 1.38 Quadratic Trend 1.22
Exponential Trend 1.39 AR(2) 2.71 Based on the MAD criterion, the most appropriate model is
Question 4 4 / 4 points The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. Month Complaints Jan 36 Feb 45 Mar 81 Apr 108 May 144 Referring to the above table, if a three-term moving average is used to smooth this series, what would be the first calculated term?
54 78 Question 5 0 / 4 points TABLE 16-4 Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for Coca-Cola's real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1975 to 1998. From the data, we also know that the real operating revenues for 1996, 1997, and 1998 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and, 11.5537, respectively. AR(1) Model: Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 0.1802077 0.39797154 0.452815546 0.655325119 XLag1 1.011222533 0.049685158 20.35260757 2.64373E-15 AR(2) Model: Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 0.30047473 0.4407641 0.681713257 0.503646149 X Lag 1 1.17322186 0.234737881 4.998008229 7.98541E-05 X Lag 2 -0.183028189 0.250716669 -0.730020026 0.47428E-08 AR(3) Model:
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 0.313043288 0.514437257 0.608515972 0.550890271 XLag1 1.173719587 0.246490594 4.761721601 0.000180926 XLag2 -0.069378567 0.373086508 -0.185958391 0.854678245 XLag3 -0.122123515 0.282031297 -0.433014053 0.670448392 Referring to Table 16-4 and using a 5% level of significance, what is the appropriate AR model for Coca- Cola's real operating revenue? AR(1) AR(2) AR(3) Any of the above.
Question 6 4 / 4 points TABLE 16-8 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1980. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1980 is coded as 0, 1981 is coded as 1, etc. Summary Output Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.604