Quiz Submissions - Test 2 - Form A
Attempt 1
Written: Oct 5, 2016 6:31 PM - Oct 5, 2016 7:08 PM
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Released: Oct 28, 2009 12:01 AM
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n 1
4 / 4 points
The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be contained in the
____________ component.
cyclical
trend
irregular
seasonal

Question
2
4 / 4
points
When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than
smoothing,
the previous smoothed value becomes the forecast.
the current smoothed value becomes the forecast.
the next smoothed value becomes the forecast.
None of the above.

Question
3
4 / 4
points
The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from time-series
data:
Model
MAD
Linear Trend
1.38
Quadratic Trend
1.22

Exponential Trend
1.39
AR(2)
2.71
Based on the MAD criterion, the most appropriate model is

Question
4
4 / 4
points
The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6
months of last year.
Month
Complaints
Jan 36
Feb 45
Mar 81
Apr 108
May 144
Referring to the above table, if a three-term moving average is used to smooth this series, what would be
the first calculated term?

54
78
Question
5
0 / 4
points
TABLE 16-4
Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for Coca-Cola's real
operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1975 to 1998. From the data, we also know that the real
operating revenues for 1996, 1997, and 1998 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and, 11.5537,
respectively.
AR(1) Model:
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Intercept 0.1802077
0.39797154
0.452815546 0.655325119
XLag1
1.011222533 0.049685158
20.35260757 2.64373E-15
AR(2) Model:
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Intercept 0.30047473
0.4407641
0.681713257
0.503646149
X Lag 1
1.17322186
0.234737881
4.998008229
7.98541E-05
X Lag 2
-0.183028189 0.250716669
-0.730020026 0.47428E-08
AR(3) Model:

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Intercept 0.313043288
0.514437257
0.608515972
0.550890271
XLag1
1.173719587
0.246490594
4.761721601
0.000180926
XLag2
-0.069378567 0.373086508
-0.185958391 0.854678245
XLag3
-0.122123515 0.282031297
-0.433014053 0.670448392
Referring to Table 16-4 and using a 5% level of significance, what is the appropriate AR model for Coca-
Cola's real operating revenue?
AR(1)
AR(2)
AR(3)
Any of the above.

Question
6
4 / 4
points
TABLE 16-8 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been
showing a linear trend since 1980. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The
dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where
1980 is coded as 0, 1981 is coded as 1, etc.
Summary Output
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.604