Tests2006PL2 - TC 310 MODES OF REASONING First Midterm,...

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TC 310 D. Hamermesh MODES OF REASONING Fall 2006 First Midterm, September 28, 2006 Please answer the questions in a blue book. The points for each are equal to the suggested minutes. Please do use a hand calculator where you wish, and you may have one side of a sheet of paper with formulas; but no books or other notes are allowed . The exams will be handed back in class on Tuesday, October 3, or Thursday, October 5. Please read Chapter 13 for Tuesday. I. (15 minutes) Calculate the mean, standard deviation, median, interquartile range and coefficient of variation of the motor vehicle death rate for this group of states. Don’t worry about the age for license just yet. State Age for License Motor Vehicle Death Rate CA 18 1.7 FL 16 2.3 GA 21 1.9 IA 18 2.1 NY 17 1.9 OR 16 1.8 TX 16 2.0 VA 18 1.6 WI 18 1.8 II. (7-1/2 minutes) 1. What would you expect the relationship to be between the two series shown above? Why? Is this correlation, or is causation implied? Explain. 2. Draw a scatter plot of these points, and say what you think the correlation between the series is. Comment on the extent of the correlation between the two series.
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III. (15 minutes) Every March, 64 college basketball teams compete in a tournament for the National Championship. The table below shows the win-loss ratios for the teams predicted to be invited. Win-Loss Ratio Number of Teams .550 - .599 2 .600 - .649 4 .650 - .699 18 .700 - .749 9 .750 - .799 14 .800 - .849 11 .850 - .899 2 .900 - .949 1 .950 - .999 3 1. Draw a histogram using these data. 2. Is the normal distribution a good approximation to the data? 3. The mean win-loss ratio for these 64 teams is .740, with a standard deviation of .07. Using ONLY this information and the attached table, what is the chance that: a. A team like UT (average .850) will be invited? b. A team like Michigan State (average .600) will be invited? c. IV. (7-1/2 minutes each) 1. We want to measure the economic returns to schooling, but there are many other dissimilarities between two people whose educational attainment differs. Two economists attempted to improve the estimates of the return to education by using data on the education and earnings of twins with different levels of schooling who attended the annual Twin Festival in Twinsburg, Ohio. Discuss the pros and cons of this sampling method for inferring the impact of schooling on earnings. 2. In a sample of married couples in Shanghai the correlation between the appearance of the husband and that of the wife (on a 5 point scale) was +.64. There are 1500 couples, and each interviewer rated the appearance of 60 couples. Is this correlation coefficient a good measure of the sorting of marriage partners along the dimensions of beauty? Also, comment on the following statement: “This shows that for each one-unit increase in a woman’s beauty rating, she obtains a husband whose looks are .64 higher on this scale.”
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3. If you study the lives of conductors of major symphony orchestras, you will observe that they
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Tests2006PL2 - TC 310 MODES OF REASONING First Midterm,...

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