wps1855 - Stabilization, Adjustment and Growth Prospects in...

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Stabilization, Adjustment and Growth Prospects in Transition Economies Cevdet Denizer Macroeconomics and Growth Division Policy Research Department The World Bank February 1997 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely the authors. They do not necessarily represent those of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
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Table 9. Forecasting GDP convergence to OECD countries Levine-Renelt Per Capita Investment Income At current investment =30 percent in US$ rates (in percent of GDP) (PPP based) Number of Number of Forecasted years to Forecasted years to (WB, IMF:1994) Per Capita reach current Per Capita reach current Growth OECD levels Growth OECD levels 1. Albania 495 4.08 91 6.3 59 2. Azerbaijan 1720 4.83 51 5.96 41 3. Bulgaria 4280 2.16 69 5.31 28 4. Croatia 3872 1.99 80 5.58 29 5. Czech Republic 7940 4.66 19 4.48 19 6. Estonia 6634 5.18 20 5.13 21 7. Hungary 7010 3.51 28 4.74 21 8. Latvia 5170 3.63 36 5.73 23 9. Macedonia, FYR 1604 7.28 35 5.97 42 10. Moldova 2270 2.94 73 6.04 36 11. Poland 5480 2.59 48 5.06 25 12. Romania 2950 5.8 33 5.85 32 13. Russia 4510 4.83 30 5.55 26 14. Slovak Republic 6730 3.63 29 4.98 21 15. Slovenia 5982 3.78 31 4.71 25 16. Armenia 2204 2.31 93 5.81 38 17. Belarus 4830 6.44 22 5.57 18. Georgia 1354 6.97 39 6.62 41 19. Kazakhstan 2946 5.15 37 6.2 31 20. Kyrgyz Republic 2358 6.23 34 6.23 34 21. Lithuania 3551 3.55 47 5.65 30 22. Tajikistan 993 4.28 70 5.63 54 23. Turkmenistan 2939 6.66 29 3.86 24. Ukraine 3149 6.79 27 5.85 31 25. Uzbekistan 2293 4.54 47 5.76 37 26. Mongolia 2090 3.86 58 5.44 41 27. China 2510 6.93 30 4.83 28. Viet Nam 1040 3.32 88 4.37 67 Average for transition 4104 4.06 45 5.43 30 OECD average (1994) 18602 not applicable 1/27/98 29 Table9.xls
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Table 8. Forecasting Long-term Trend Growth (Levine-Renelt) Population Secondary School Gross Per Capita Forecasted Forecasted Growth Enrollment Capital Formation Income Per Capita Growth Rate (share of school (share of GDP) in US$ Growth Rate age population in current prices PPP based Rate (WB) (WB, KZ) (OECD, WEO) (WB, IMF) 1. Albania 1.19 0.79 0.17 495 4.08 5.27 2. Azerbaijan 1.28 0.83 0.24 1720 4.83 6.10 3. Bulgaria -0.35 0.71 0.12 4280 2.16 1.80 4. Croatia 0.06 0.80 0.10 3872 1.99 2.06 5. Czech Republic -0.06 0.89 0.31 7940 4.66 4.60 6. Estonia -0.31 0.92 0.30 6634 5.18 4.86 7. Hungary -0.53 0.81 0.23 7010 3.51 2.98 8. Latvia -0.53 0.92 0.18 5170 3.63 3.10 9. Macedonia, FYR 1.12 0.80 0.38 1604 7.28 8.40 10. Moldova 0.41 0.81 0.12 2270 2.94 3.35 11. Poland 0.20 0.83 0.16 5480 2.59 2.79 12. Romania 0.19 0.80 0.30 2950 5.80 5.99 13. Russia 0.55 0.92 0.26 4510 4.83 5.38 14. Slovak Republic 0.35 0.96 0.22 6730 3.63 3.98 15. Slovenia 0.41 0.80 0.25 5982 3.78 4.19 16. Armenia 1.40 0.85 0.10 2204 2.31 3.74 17. Belarus 0.20 0.92 0.35 4830 6.44 6.66 18. Georgia -0.20 0.82 0.32 1354 6.97 6.76 19. Kazakhstan 0.10 0.90 0.24 2946 5.15 5.26 20. Kyrgyz Republic 0.40 0.88 0.30 2358 6.23 6.66 21. Lithuania 0.00 0.78 0.18 3551 3.55 3.55 22. Tajikistan 2.00 0.73 0.22 993 4.28 6.36 23. Turkmenistan 4.60 0.70 0.46 2939 6.66 11.57 24. Ukraine 0.00 0.80 0.35 3149 6.79 6.79 25. Uzbekistan 2.20 0.94 0.23 2293 4.54 6.84 26. Mongolia 1.90 0.78 0.21 2090 3.86 5.84 27. China 1.20 0.55 0.42 2510 6.93 8.21 28. Viet Nam 2.10 0.35 0.24 1040 3.32 5.49 Average 0.26 0.84 0.22 4443 4.06 4.32 Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF), The World Bank (WB), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Krajnyak and Zettelmeyer (KZ, 1996), and author's estimates. 1/27/98 28 Table8.xls
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TABLE 7: Fiscal Deficits and Quasi-Fiscal Expenditures for Selected Countries, 1992-94 (as percentage of GDP) Fiscal Deficits CB Implicit Subsidy a) Total 1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994 Advanced Reformers Poland 6.8 2.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 2.9 2.9 Hungary 5.7 7.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 7.0 6.5 Czech Republic 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 -0.4 Slovakia 13.1 7.6 2.5 0.3 1.7 0.0 13.4 9.3 2.5 Intermediate Reformers Bulgaria 5.0 11.1 6.1 1.3 0.8 0.7 6.3 11.9 6.8 Estonia -0.5 1.4 0.0 - 0.2 0.3 - 1.6 0.3 Romania 5.5 1.0 3.0 5.9 3.9 0.0 11.4 4.9 3.0 Russia 3.4 8.1 8.8 11.3 1.7 0.0 14.7 9.8 8.8
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This note was uploaded on 08/08/2008 for the course ECON 365 taught by Professor Muniagurria during the Spring '07 term at Wisconsin.

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wps1855 - Stabilization, Adjustment and Growth Prospects in...

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