Latin America 04

Latin America 04 - Latin America Current Economic Situation Maria Muniagurria November 2004 Main Sources Economic Commission for Latin America(ECLA

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Unformatted text preview: Latin America: Current Economic Situation Maria Muniagurria November 2004 Main Sources: Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) International Monetary Fund (IMF) A Little Bit of History - Economic Performance: poor growth record overall, very variable. - Social Indicators/ Poverty/Inequality: most do not show sustained improvement. - Development approach: 50-70’s: Import Substitution Industrialization 80-90’s: opening, privatizations, large K- inflows , crisis (Mexico 95, Brazil 99, Argentina 2001) GDP Growth rates: annual averages DJ) 1951— 1961- 1971— 1981- 1991- 1998- 2003 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997 2002 2003-04 Substantial Improvement. Good international conditions: China, US, Japan are growing, favorable export pnces. Argentina is planning to get out of the default (early 2005), should stimulate K- inflows. ' China is playing a major role in trade and investment. Annual GDP gruwm rate 4’:- m h] 1997 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN - GDP growth rate 1998 1999 2000 +Per capita GDP (index: 1997=100) 4.5 2001 2004 110 108 106 '2‘ 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 xapu! due and an 13d Positive Growth Estimates for 2004 are Widesoread Venezuela=12% 3 Latin America and the m Caribbean III} E 6 . . E g 4 - - a I I W E 3 E 2 it I I g 3" II ‘- u :I o I! g = II In .5 g u z 3-. a. - - g g F 3 E E ‘- 3 .2 a a g, E a. g < 3 3 8- ‘7: g g E a “ -- m " B a? 3 Q m g 2- c c " 3’ u n. E "' a 3 a: 9 q a a D m 3 -- ° 3 a a) u u 5.‘ U z I 5 ._ > U ‘9 o E 5 E o O Annual GDP Growth Rates Argentina Brazil Chile 9 ,HII Inuu “ V. ...|.. _ 086420246802 1 - - - -11 9596979899 012 3 4 GDP Annual Growth Rate Colombia Venezuela 9596979899 012 3 4 .5 D Exports drive recovery but domestic demand improving ANNUAL GROWTH RATES I 2001 I 21302 El 2003 El 2004 Consumption investment Domestic demand Capital Inflows are recovering Unemployment ram {91H 11 10 Unemployment still high but employment rate improving 10.7 - Unemployment rate 10.5 10.5 E 10.6 — Employment rate 10.3 10 5.5 33 I I I I I I I I I I I a 5 ' .l I I I I I I I I I I I u : I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 990 1995 1998 1 999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003-1 2004-1 sem. sem- W.) cm :uawfioidwa Good performance of trading partners benefit region GROWTH RATES 2003—2004 .1. D I 20113 I 2004 5" a P o a. ‘ D A N M h 01 G! "J on u: "1: II“ ‘III I III-Illjl United States Japan European Union China Latin America’s largest exporters to China EXPORTS IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I Exports in bi Ii ans of dollars I 2303-2002 growth rabe fix.) Brazil Argentina Chie Peru Costa Rica Total Latin American and Caribbean exports: USS 14.92? billion LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARiBBEAN: PRICES OF COMMODITY EXPORTS (index: 1997=100) Gmwth rate “A: Growth of intra block exports Lat’m America and Caribbean Common Market MERCOSU R Andean Community Central American I 2002 I l-2003 El l-2004 ANNUAL EXPORT GROWTH RATES (2004-2003) South America Ientral America and Cafibbean Mexico Tatal As a percentage ofGD P Improvement in Current Account LATIN AMERICA: CURRENT ACCOUNT AND TRADE BALANCE —Trade balance - Current account 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 24 20 16 12 1 I External savings are still negative Gross investment /GDP is at its lowest level since 1970 I Gross investment 4f ‘ 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 II— Percentages of GDP Fiscal situation improving Red: Primary Balance of Central Gov. Blue: Overall Gov. Balance LATIN AMERICA: POVERTYAND INDIGENCE, I990—2003 31 Percentage of people Number of people ' zoo Pementage U can lllllllllillIlllllllllllllll ‘ W90 I199? I999 2000 200! 2002 2003 bl' l990 l997 W | i999 2000 201 2002 100 hi ': magma: Non-Indigent P00? Source: ECLAC. on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the relevant countries. a] Estimates for I? countries of the region. The figures appearing above the light—coloured bars represent the tow number of poor people (indigent plus non—indigent poor). bi The figures for 2003 are projections. ...
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This note was uploaded on 08/08/2008 for the course ECON 365 taught by Professor Muniagurria during the Spring '07 term at Wisconsin.

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Latin America 04 - Latin America Current Economic Situation Maria Muniagurria November 2004 Main Sources Economic Commission for Latin America(ECLA

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