Statistics Assignment 2

Statistics Assignment 2 - Statistics Assignment #2 Due :...

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Statistics Assignment #2 Due : October 16, 2006 3.88 Lie Detector Test (a) Let A be the event that the lie detector test is accurate. Let S1 be the event that the 1 st suspect’s test is accurate. Let S2 be the event that the 2 nd suspect’s test is accurate. Let S3 be the event that the 3 rd suspect’s test is accurate. Let S4 be the event that the 4 th suspect’s test is accurate. P (A) = 0.98, according to the manufacturer P (S1∩ S2∩ S3∩ S4) = 0.98 x 0.98 x 0.98 x 0.98 = 0.92 (b) P (S1 c U S2 c U S3 c U S4 c ) = 1 – 0.92 = 0.078 (c) According to laboratory experiment, P (A) = 0.498 The chance of having two incorrect test results according to the manufacturer is : P (2 wrong) = (0.98x0.98x0.02x0.02) x (6) = .23 % **this is the probability of there being two wrong results, times the 6 possible combinations of having two wrong. Therefore, because the chance of there being two incorrect results according to the accuracy of the manufacturer is very small, we would have to assume that the results of the experiment show that the accuracy of the lie detector test is not 98%. However we
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This note was uploaded on 08/13/2008 for the course MATH 203 taught by Professor Dr.josecorrea during the Fall '08 term at McGill.

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Statistics Assignment 2 - Statistics Assignment #2 Due :...

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