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060208 - few checks on power of Shiites after election>...

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Lecture 27: Things Fall Apart 2 June 2008 Questions that should have been asked before the invasion, but weren't 1. Is Saddam deterrable? 2. Is Democracy so easy? 3. What happens when a historically victimized group takes power? 4. Effect on regional balance of power: Middle East 5. What if Iraqis don't love the US? 6. Could invasion increase terrorism? 7. What if things go wrong?: Wouldn't act in democratic means; there was no "plan B" Most Egregious Blunders in the Occupation - Not enough troops: the US should have a "lighter, more agile force"; rely more on technology, not soldiers - Disdain for expertise, triumph of politics - "De-Baathification": Suddam in charge of the Baath Party: Sunni Muslim party; ridding of old regime * needed an indigenous group to run country: schools left without teachers; health ministry without doctors - Dismantling the Iraqi army - Early elections: constitutional liberalism; groups in power have complete control with tyranny over the majority
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Unformatted text preview: * few checks on power of Shiites after election---> breakdown of security---> insurgency---> capture of state Unintended Consequences 1. Costs- blood: 84-92,000 Iraqis; 4,085 Americans- treasure: (estimate) $3 trillion overall, $12.5 billion a month 2. No State- Iraq is not functioning as a state- militia groups and factions in different parts of the country 3. New balance of power in Middle East 4. Refugees: escaping to neighboring countries; brings animosity to surrounding countries 5. Not "winning" the "war on terror" * afghanistan: left many people with nothing to do, led to the creation of Al-Queda 6. Anti-Americanism * US policies unpopular, even among UN What's Next?- End of Bush Doctrine, democracy agenda- Stay or go? * debate in presidential election today: republicans view in terms of Vietnam; democrats want to pull out immediately; leaving behind a small number of troops to fight terrorism...
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