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Final Preparation.
The final will test
all
material, not only material after the second midterm. Notice that the follow
ing questions are a sample of the kind of questions that could be on the final. However, they cer
tainty do not cover everything that could be on the final. They are merely intended to give you
some idea of the kind of questions that you can expect. In general, you probably want to look at
all of the assignments (including sample solutions), handouts, slides, the book, and all midterm
prep questions. Please do not forget to bring a calculator to the final.
After your yearly checkup, the doctor has bad news and good news. The bad news is that you
tested positive for a serious disease, and that the test is 99% accurate (that is, the probability of
testing positive given that you have the disease is 0.99, as is the probability of testing negative
given that you don’t have the disease). The good news is that this is a rare disease, striking only
one in 10,000 people. Why is it good news that the disease is rare? What are the chances that you
actually have the disease?
Consider the following Bayes net.
a) What is P(A AND B AND C AND D AND E)?
b) What is P(NOT A AND NOT B AND NOT C AND NOT D AND NOT E)?
c) What is P(C  A AND B)?
d) There are 32 different
truthvalue assignments to A, B, C, D, and E. List which of these 32
truthvalue assignments have nonzero probability.
True or false: The amount of memory needed to represent a Bayes net is proportional to the num
ber of nodes times the maximum number of parents of any node? Justify your answer.
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This note was uploaded on 09/10/2008 for the course CS 460 taught by Professor Svenkoenig during the Fall '08 term at Urbana.
 Fall '08
 SvenKoenig

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