pols exam 4 review - Public opinion held by private person...

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Public opinion: held by private person on politics and government (heed) o high technique modes to measure/shape/exploit public attitudes o hap ha-hazard (no principal/organization) to scientific polling Basis of Political Opinion: Political culture, ideology, political socialization o Scientific poling (20 th ): ordinary people, random samples (close connection) Improvement: increased | accuracy: decreased o Population: entire group about information wanted o Sample: subset of population used to gain information on population Margin of Error: convey uncertainty about your estimate o (+- 4%): 95% fall in the 4% of true value of population o 1,200 – 1,500 (confident about results) Not require knowledge of size of entire population Requires size of the sample o Uncertainty even when we do a perfect scientific sampling (can be approximated) Telephone Surveys: 2% of population don’t have phones o Random-digit dialing for samples: non-response bias Non-response bias: only people who have time do survey (not everybody does) PRO: fast way/good response rate, telephone survey - random sampling CON: training, cost/time ineffective, not good for lengthy survey, sensitive subjects Response Rates: number of complete interviews with reporting divide by eligible reporting Measurement Error: when surveys don’t capture what they intended to measure (survey error, quantify pain) o Problem with the wording of the survey questions in which the terms people understand o Even the most well designed questions can never be perfect Why do we care? Opinions shape political behavior o Help us predict (wrapped up in measurement error – important to politicians) Political attitudes: a matter of thinking, feeling, and reacting (emotional attachments or convictions) o Some: very consistent and well informed o Majority: very loose and not always consistent or well informed (Jimmy Kimmel) Political Ideology: organized set of ideas concerning the political and economic system or SET OF VIEWS o People don’t know the position of their party or can describe it (1/4 don’t place themselves ¼) Partisan Identification: stronger voice (emotionally attached – but can change) o Psychological: element of personal identity; enduring orientation to political world (moving) o Practical: based ID on past performance of candidate o Single greatest predictor: party shapes vote choice Democrats: liberal | Republicans: conservative Partisan ID: stereotype based on looks o Don’t have to fit image, we can be nuisance (can’t force) o 29% Republican | 20% democrats | 35% independent Political Socialization: acquiring political attitudes (childhood, early adulthood – establish party ID) Political Isolation: lower income/educated groups, gain knowledge from kids (immigrants) Political Knowledge: acquiring political information is costly (many uninformed, 35% with branches) Ambiance: most important source of instability in attitudes (surroundings) o
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