0926

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0926 Ocean Carriers Ship industries Is this stable/ predictable? Volatile (linked to macro economics) Industry Demand Supply Short term Volatile Take 2 years to build Few sinking Long term Supply depends on demand more The determents of long-term demand (2001): Regulations Emerging markets Outsourcing Efficiency/ technology Global output: Massive expansion+ Financial crisis How to quantify the stuff? Growth rate Prices will fall Cash flow of buying the ship 39 millions Should we scrap? When? After 15 years o Scrap- we will have 5 million o Sell the ship- Second hand market – approximation: book value of the ship (depends on depreciation)
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