Shah_thesis - PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR...

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Unformatted text preview: PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR PRIORITIZATION OF RISK FACTORS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Industrial Engineering in The Department of Industrial Engineering by Jay Tarakkumar Shah B. E., Gujarat University, 2002 December 2004 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my major adviser Dr. Charles McAllister for his insight, suggestions, encouragement, support and availability throughout the research investigation and preparation of thesis. I am especially thankful to Dr. Glenn Sumners for allowing me to expand on his previous risk management work and his suggestions and support during the research In addition, I would like to thank Dr. Thomas Ray for reviewing my work and serving on my committee. I would like to dedicate my thesis to my parents Tarak R. Shah and Dipti T. Shah and my younger sister Dhwani for their support and sacrifice throughout my life. I also thank my family, my fiancé Urvi and my friends Abhinandan and Devraj for their continuous encouragement and moral support. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................ii LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES.............................................................................................................. vi ABSTRACT..........................................................................................................................vii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Literature Review............................................................................................. 3 1.1.1 Phases in Risk Management ................................................................... 3 1.1.2 Qualitative Risk Management................................................................. 5 CHAPTER 2. QUANTITATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT................................................ 7 2.1 Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) ................................................... 7 2.2 Risk Ranking.................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Risk Factors ..................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)............................................................ 12 2.4.1 Simple Probabilistic Concept................................................................ 12 2.4.2 Exceedance Probability (EP) Curves.................................................... 12 2.4.3 Monte Carlo Simulation........................................................................ 13 2....
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This note was uploaded on 09/25/2008 for the course STAT 201 taught by Professor Ghajar during the Spring '08 term at Lebanese American University.

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Shah_thesis - PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR...

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