26 Sensitivity Anal - CEE 597 Lecture 25 Sensitivity...

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CEE 597 – Lecture 25 ensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis 28 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 1
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Learning objectives tudents should be able to employ Students should be able to employ sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to explain graphically and quantitatively the relative contribution of different parameters to overall system uncertainty. 28 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 2
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Readings Stedinger, "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis”, packet in packet CEE 597 Lecture Notes 28 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 3
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Evaluation of Decisions on’t confuse good decisions Don t confuse good decisions with good outcomes. Good decisions balance the possible outcomes, their likelihood, and aversion to risk. Good outcomes occur when nature’s lottery yields a result one is happy about. It may or may not reflect a good decision. 28 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 4
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Where is the impact? 28 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 5
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On being over confident … Convictions are more Dangerous foes of truth than lies. -Nietzsche e trouble with people is not that they don’t The trouble with people is not that they don t know but that they know so much that ain’t so. - osh Billings Jos gs 28 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 6
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Sources of Uncertainty ariability in natural phenomenon 1. Variability in natural phenomenon 2. Errors in model structure 3. Error in model parameters 4. Error in data describing system 5. Poor description of stochastic variables 6. Unanticipated changes in human activities 28 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 25 7
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Taxonomy for Describing Uncertainty Natural Variability
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26 Sensitivity Anal - CEE 597 Lecture 25 Sensitivity...

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