21 Midterm Review

21 Midterm Review - CEE 597 Midterm Review 7 March 2007...

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CEE 597 idterm Review Midterm Review 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 1
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The Engineer of 2020 isions of Engineering Visions of Engineering in the New Century National Academy of Engineering, © 2004 From Conclusions of Chapter 1 The engineer of 2020 will be faced with myriad challenges, creating offensive and defensive solutions at the macro- and microscales in preparation for ossible dramatic changes in the world. Engineers will be expected to possible dramatic changes in the world. Engineers will be expected to anticipate and prepare for potential catastrophes as biological terrorism; water and food contamination; infrastructure damage to roads, bridges, building, and the electricity grid; and communications breakdown in the ternet telephon raidio and tele ision Engineers ill be asked to create Internet, telephony, raidio, and television. Engineers will be asked to create solutions that minimize the risk of computer failure and at the same time prepare backup solutions that enable rapid recovery, reconstruction and deployment…. 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 2
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Midterm Exam Thursday, March 8, 2007 7:30 - 9:00 pm, Olin Hall 255 OPEN BOOK --- OPEN NOTES 2004 -2005-2006 Midterms Added to the web site Tuesday. 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 3
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Reality Check You have lots of old exams and learning objectives. If they are not consistent, please let me know. Limited time on exams (90 mins) places constraints on complexity of questions that can be asked. In later life, one will want to address much more omplex problems and will have more time and complex problems, and will have more time and resources. 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 4
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Topics for Midterm Concepts of probability and definitions of risk Measures of risk, Criteria, and their strengths/weaknesses Historical death statistics: what we die of Fly vs drive risk analysis: modeling and presentation of risk 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 5
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Fatalities per billion miles 100.0 8 fatalities/billion miles 10.0 0.8 fatalities/billion miles .0 1.0 0.1 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 6 Trip Distance (miles) k=0 k=1 k=2 k=3
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Lessons - Fly vs Drive 1. Linear and multiplicative models can interpret historical data. 2. A model with independent multiplicative effects can predict accident rates for different drivers. 3. Don't believe everything you read. Disraeli: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, dam lies, and statistics.” 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 7
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Dimensions of Risk Potency: How much needed to kill me? if exposed do you catch it? (Jumping off a building versus unprotect sex with HIV+ person.) Rate of Action: How fast does it kill you? (AIDS potent, but slow.) Exposure: How many people are exposed? How much reaches me? Total Social Impact: Total Deaths Relative Social Impact: % deaths 7 March 2007 Jery Stedinger Midterm 8
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Alternative Measures of Risk Criterion Points Out Ignores Total US deaths/year total social impact exposure % US deaths/year relative social impact exposure portance relative importance relative to what else is happening Deaths/100,000 potency: death rate exposure; other risks
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This note was uploaded on 09/28/2008 for the course CEE 5970 taught by Professor Stedinger during the Spring '07 term at Cornell.

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21 Midterm Review - CEE 597 Midterm Review 7 March 2007...

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