04 Fly or Drive

04 Fly or Drive - CEE597 Lecture 4 A Risk Analysis Model:...

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CEE597 – Lecture 4 Risk Analysis Model: A Risk Analysis Model: Fly or Drive? 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 1
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CEE 597: Where We Are easuring risk and life statistics (People get hurt. People die.) Measuring risk and life statistics (People get hurt. People die.) WED *Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, “Rating the Risks” WED Wilson, “Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life” WED Data on breast cancer in packet, Zuckerman, Gorman Calculating risk (Building models) FRI *Morgan, “Probing the Question of Technology-Induced Risk” FRI *Morgan, “Choosing and Managing Technology-Induced Risk” A risk analysis model MON Evans, Frick, and Schwing, “Is it Safer to Fly or Drive?” ON ivak et al “Nonstop Flying is Safer than Driving” MON Sivak et al., Nonstop Flying is Safer than Driving Historical Accidents (Read TMI article for Wed.–PACKET) Wed Understanding System Failures , V. Bignell and J. Fortune Wed Wed READ: “Accident at Three Mile Island nuclear power station” FRI. READ: Genius – challenger shuttle “Bhopal – a tragedy in waiting” 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 2 Hw: “Short studies,”B&F Chapter 7
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TODAY: Describing Risk Modeling Risks FLY or Drive (or who you should believe) Use of models Appropriate basis for risk calculation (exposure) Interaction of factors Parameter estimation Learning objectives 1. be able to describe factors affecting airline/auto safety 2. know why we need to model risks 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 3
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I better call you back 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 4
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Car phone chats - IJ 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 5
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Cell phone ‘Blind’ Drivers 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 6
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http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/04/20/driving.study/index.html Distracted Drivers 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 7
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Crash Study Ranks Deadly vehicles 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 8
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Driver death rates in car crashes 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 9
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CRITERIA river deaths in crashes Driver deaths in crashes per million registered vehicle years % of single-vehicle driver deaths were in rollovers ee oo es Better criteria deaths per mile? 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 10
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Death Rate death rate % in rollovers Popular Explorer 4-door, drive 56 70.3 4-drive Explorer 4-door, 2-drive 103 86.5 Average SUVs 72 79.6 xplorer 2-door 2-drive 31 6 7 Driver deaths in crashes per million registered vehicle years Explorer 2 door, 2 drive 231 86.7 29 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 04 11 2-door 2-drive is 10 inches shorter (in 180”) and 200 lbs lighter (in 3600 lbs) than 4-door model.
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So are transportation deaths a concern in the United States? What segment of the
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This note was uploaded on 09/28/2008 for the course CEE 5970 taught by Professor Stedinger during the Spring '07 term at Cornell.

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04 Fly or Drive - CEE597 Lecture 4 A Risk Analysis Model:...

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