03 Calculating Risks - CEE 597 - Lecture 3 Calculating Risk...

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Unformatted text preview: CEE 597 - Lecture 3 Calculating Risk (Building models) 26 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 1 CEE 597: Where We Are troduction to course hos worried?) Introduction to course (Who s worried?) MON Hoffbuhr, The Probability of Risk; Broad, Analyzing ..Dangers MON MON Gibbons, Review of Wilson & Crouch MON Bernstein, Against the Gods; Shodell, Risky Business Measuring risk and life statistics (People get hurt. People die.) WED *Slovic, Fischhoff, Lichtenstein, Rating the Risks ED ilson Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life WED Wilson, Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life WED Data on breast cancer in packet, Zuckerman, Gorman Calculating risk (Building models) FRI *Morgan, Probing the Question of Technology-Induced Risk FRI *Morgan, Choosing & Managing Technology-Induced Risk risk analysis model e can model that ) ead before class A risk analysis model (We can model that.) Read before class. MON Evans, Frick, and Schwing, Is it Safer to Fly or Drive? MON Sivak et al., Nonstop Flying is Safer than Driving 26 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 2 TODAY: Describing Risk Understanding, presenting, modeling data: Smokers and Non-Smokers ill and Smoking Pill and Smoking Definitions of Risk Calculation of Risk oals for Risk Assessment and Risk Management Goals for Risk Assessment and Risk Management 26 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 3 State Mutuals Experience for insured mokers (S) and Non- mokers (NS) 1973- 978 Smokers (S) and Non Smokers (NS), 1973 1978 Original Data in publication Ratio Death ates Rates CAUSE OF DEATH % DEATHS S/NS Respiratory Cancers 6 43 15.0 0 1 16 7 Arteriosclerotic heart disease 30.1 216 2.7 Hypertension+related heart dis. 2.5 18 8.1 Cancer (exclude respiratory) 19.1 137 1.2 Motor vehicle accidents 4.9 35 2.6 Suicide 4.9 35 9.0 ll other 2 5 33 9 All other 32.5 233 1.9 All Causes 100 718 2.2 26 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 4 Source: Urquhart J, Heilmann K. Risk Watch: the odds of Life. Facts on File publications, New York, 1984 State Mutuals Experience for insured djusted as if equal numbers of S and N adjusted as if equal numbers of S and N Adjusted so equal numbers S and N. Ratio Death Rates Deaths Deaths CAUSE OF DEATH % DEATHS S/NS S's NS's Respiratory Cancers 43 15.0 40 esp a o y Ca ce s 6 3 5.0 3 Arteriosclerotic heart disease 30.1 216 2.7 158 58 Hypertension+related heart dis. 2.5 18 8.1 16 2 Cancer (exclude respiratory) 19.1 137 1.2 75 62 Motor vehicle accidents 4.9 35 2.6 25 10 Suicide 4.9 35 9.0 32 4 All other 32.5 233 1.9 153 80 26 January 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 03 5 State Mutuals Experience for adjusted as if equal numbers of S and N, showing difference in deaths of S and N....
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03 Calculating Risks - CEE 597 - Lecture 3 Calculating Risk...

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