32 Ames Aberson - CEE 597 Lecture 32 Cancer Chemicals and...

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CEE 597 - Lecture 32 CEE 597 Lecture 32 Cancer, Chemicals and Human Health 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 1
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Readings Mon Ames; Abelson, Horomesis; Stolen Futures; Steingraber; Wed Big risks-EPA Advisory Panel, Wildsky Morall, Review of the Record Kelman, Benefit-cost analysis Fri AIDS, Hearts and Hulley, “Preventing the heterosexual spreads of AIDS” 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 2
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Fewer doctors urge weight loss April 20, 2004
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Some extra heft may be helpful, new study says
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Some unexpected findings
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Comic
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Exposing the threat of Dioxin Worldwide 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 7
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EPA Report on Dioxins Cancer Risks 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 8
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FDA: Natural risks in food outweigh man-made dangers 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 9
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Trusting to Luck T ti t L k Trusting to Luck
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How Safe is Our Food
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Ames, Magaw, and Gold Ranking Possible Carcinogenic Hazards TD 50 = daily dose in mice or rats at which 50% of animals are tumor free at end of lifetime [mg/day/kg] HERP = Human Exposure/ Rodent Potency dose = Human Exposure/ TD 50 Not a direct measure of human health hazard Danger with analysis No scaling for size of animals or lifetime lengths Cancers have different mechanisms and defenses which will cause dose-response curves to have different shapes OSHA not regulating EDB for HERP of 140% but EPA bands at 0.0004% because of concern for leaching to groundwater used as a water supply and concentration in grains. EPA upper bound implies 3 cancers/1000 for uses it considered 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 12 (about 1% of US cancers) (pp 275; 277)
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Possible Hazard TD 50 (mg/kg)
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Ames et al. Conclusion Need a proper perspective Avoid Chemophobia Natural compounds need not be benign— Natural selection isn’t a protection i) Cancer occurs late in life after reproductive period ii) Diets have changed iii) Natural compounds cause cancer in animals Hazard from useful chemicals generally smaller than from many natural foods (peanut butter, beer, wine, mushrooms) 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 14
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Ames et al. Conclusion - Serious hazards Serious hazards tobacco (30% US cancer deaths: lung cancer + heart disease) alcohol (3% US cancer deaths) saturated fats (heart disease; colon cancer) 30% is overweight [combating cancer] 5% sedentary lifestyle Æ 86% cancer preventable 10% of lung cancer possibly from radon pollution in homes 13 April 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 32 15
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Epstein and Swartz Comment “The conclusions reflect both flawed science and public policy” Ames et al. use AVERAGE population exposures S h hi h iti Some groups have higher exposure or are more sensitive. Ignore synergistic interactions: Potency of aflatoxin & alcohol S i ti ith h titi B i & t b k Synergistic with hepatitis B virus & tobacco smoke Ignore cumulative affect of “industrial” pollutants Over represent risk from natural carcinogens D t di f t l i Dose-response studies for natural carcinogens done at very low doses Dose-response studies for synthetic pollutants done near maximum tolerated dose which is much higher maximum tolerated dose, which is much higher.
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