13_14 Risk Profiles - CEE 597 Lecture 13 and 14 Risk...

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EE 597 cture 13 and 14 CEE 597 Lecture 13 and 14 Risk Profiles 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 1
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PRELIM EXAM ee top of Homework Sheet See top of Homework Sheet Thursday, March 8, 2007, in evening, 7:30 - 9:00 pm. Learning objectives and old exams distributed Friday, Feb. 23 . 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 2
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Where We’re Going – Risk Profiles See top of Homework Sheet Mon. & Wed. Feb. 19-21 lectures on risk profiles Please READ *Keeney, Kulkarni & Nair, “Assessing Risk of an LNG Terminal Raj and Glickman, “ Gen. Hazardous Material Risk Profiles on RR Routes” RP Examples in CEE 597 Packet February 23 lecture is about accident response; no reading 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 3
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Where We’re Going– Statistics & Failures See top of Homework Sheet Starting Feb. 26 review of statistical concepts followed on Feb. 28 and March 2 discussion of transportation risks. ead class review material on statistics (or your own book) Read class review material on statistics (or your own book) For Feb. 28 READ Barnett et al . “Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings” plus Barnet and Higgins This material will provide an opportunity to consider the statistical analysis of accident data. It will provide a review of statistics. A risk analysis course would not be complete without statistics. 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 4
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Construction of Risk Profiles In packet three examples are provided in: Risk Profile for CEE 597 Case Study 1 Keeney et al. LNG Terminal (See Readings in Risk ) Case Study 2 Raj and Glickman- Transportation of Haz Materials (See Packet) Studies illustrate: frequency*conditional probabilities, valuation of complex tree evaluation of complex tree, use of empirical data, and models of technology and accidents 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 5
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Related Learning Objectives • Students should be able to build mathematical models of risk and reliability, and be able to make reasonable choices between different mathematical formulations to capture the characteristics of the phenomena described. • Be able to construct fault trees, event trees, and risk profiles for realistic problems and compute the resulting probabilities. • Students should recognize which probabilities can be obtained directly from historical data, which can be obtained by extrapolating from historical data, and which should be obtained by mechanistic/probabilistic arguments. 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 6
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Train Crash Kills 8 01/07/05 Graniteville, S. Carolina, 2005 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 7
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arch March 2001 Great Neck, England 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 8
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1996 Wisconsin Train Derailment 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 9
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Pittsburg Tribune-Review 2 July 1996 Pittsburg 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 10 g Tribune-Review 2 July 1996
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North orea Korea 24 April 2004 Train explosion 54 dead 1,250 ,5 0 injured CBS News ww cbsnews com/stories/2004 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 11 www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004 /04/23/world/main613525.shtml
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Iran Train Explosion 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 12 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/19/international/middleeast/19CND-IRAN.htm
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13_14 Risk Profiles - CEE 597 Lecture 13 and 14 Risk...

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