13_14 Risk Profiles

13_14 Risk Profiles - CEE 597 Lecture 13 and 14 Risk...

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CEE 597 – Lecture 13 and 14 CEE 597 Lecture 13 and 14 Risk Profiles 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 1
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PRELIM EXAM See top of Homework Sheet Thursday, March 8, 2007, in evening, 7:30 - 9:00 pm. Learning objectives and old exams distributed Friday, Feb. 23 . 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 2
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Where We’re Going – Risk Profiles See top of Homework Sheet d b 9 2 l t i k fil Mon. & Wed. Feb. 19-21 lectures on risk profiles Please READ *Keeney, Kulkarni & Nair, “Assessing Risk of an LNG Terminal Raj and Glickman, “ Gen. Hazardous Material Risk Profiles on RR Routes” RP Examples in CEE 597 Packet February 23 lecture is about accident response; no reading 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 3
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Where We’re Going– Statistics & Failures See top of Homework Sheet Starting Feb. 26 review of statistical concepts followed on Feb. 28 and March 2 discussion of transportation risks. Read class review material on statistics (or your own book) For Feb. 28 READ Barnett et al . “Airline Safety: Some Empirical Findings” plus Barnet and Higgins This material will provide an opportunity to consider the statistical analysis of accident data. It will provide a review of statistics. A risk analysis course would not be complete without statistics. 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 4
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Construction of Risk Profiles In packet three examples are provided in: Risk Profile for CEE 597 Case Study 1 Keeney et al. LNG Terminal (See Readings in Risk ) Case Study 2 Raj and Glickman- Transportation of Haz Materials (See Packet) Studies illustrate: frequency*conditional probabilities, evaluation of complex tree evaluation of complex tree, use of empirical data, and models of technology and accidents 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 5
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Related Learning Objectives • Students should be able to build mathematical models of risk and reliability, and be able to make reasonable choices b t diff t th ti l f l ti t t th between different mathematical formulations to capture the characteristics of the phenomena described. • Be able to construct fault trees, event trees, and risk profiles for realistic problems and compute the resulting probabilities. • Students should recognize which probabilities can be obtained directly from historical data, which can be obtained by extrapolating from historical data, and which should be obtained by mechanistic/probabilistic arguments. 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 6
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Graniteville, S. Carolina, 2005 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 7
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March 2001 Great Neck, England 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 8
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1996 Wisconsin Train Derailment 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 9
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Pittsburg Tribune-Review 2 July 1996 Pittsburg 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 10 Tribune-Review 2 July 1996
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North Korea 24 April 2004 T i Train explosion 54 dead 1,250 injured CBS News www cbsnews com/stories/2004 19-21 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 13 11 www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004 /04/23/world/main613525.shtml
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