09_10 Poisson Process

09_10 Poisson Process - CEE 597 Lecture 10 Poisson Process...

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EE 597 cture 10 CEE 597 – Lecture 10 Poisson Process, Frequency, Probability, and Risk Profiles 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 1
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Please help with instruction in this course. Take a few minutes before class nd fill out the questionnaire and fill out the questionnaire attached to today’s handout. Thank you for your support. 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 2
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This Week Wednesday - Event Trees and Fault Trees robabilit re ie Probability review Friday-Monday - Reliability Analyses Morgan article, Reading in Risk, pp. 24-25 Rasmussen, Reading in Risk, pp. 197-201 Yen and Tung, Reliability and Uncertainty in Packet • Benjamin and Cornell, “Models for Random Occurrences,” in packet These lass Notes on Poisson Process 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 3 • These Class Notes on Poisson Process
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Poisson process assumptions Poisson Process Assumptions ulti state Key Ideas Multi-state Stochastic Processes Probabilities p (t) k Arrival rate oisson processes Time T to get k counts Counts K in time t Poisson processes Poisson distribution Frequency vs robability Gamma distribution frequency of arrivals Probability Æ probability 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 4 Risk Profiles
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Man-made Hazards Risk Profile for Man-Made Hazards the In the United States 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 5 Morgan, Readings in Risk, p, 11
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Ithaca Journal, ursday Feb 15 1995 Thursday, Feb 15, 1995 he Ithaca Journal 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 6 The Ithaca Journal 16 Feb. 1995
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The Station nightclub fire - Rhode Island - 2003 P Photo/WPRI V ia Killed 100 people; injured 200 http://www.cnn.com/interactive/us/03 02/nightclub.fire.gallery/frameset.exclude.html 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 7 AP Photo/WPRI-TV via CNN
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The Station Nightclub Fire, Feb. 20, 2003 The fourth deadliest nightclub fire in U.S. history Killed 100 people and injured 200 more in West Warwick in Kent County, Rhode Island. The fire started when pyrotechnics set off by the Great White ck band lit flammable soundproofing foam behind the rock band lit flammable soundproofing foam behind the stage. Flames first thought to be part of the act; only as fire reached ceiling and smoke began to billow people realized it was uncontrolled. Ensuing stampede in inferno led to the numerous deaths among patrons, who numbered more than 400. ue to age and size, the nightclub was not required to have a Due to age and size, the nightclub was not required to have a sprinkler system and it did not have one. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, 2006 9 Feb. 2007Jery Stedinger Lecture 09 8
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Deadliest Nightclub Fires in United States 1990, March, Happyland Fire in the Bronx, New York City, death toll of 87. 1977 May, Southgate, Kentucky, Beverly Hills Supper Club fire claimed 165 lives 1940, April, Dance hall, Natchez, Mississippi, killed 204 Nov. 1942, Cocoanut Grove in Boston, 492 died after paper decorations caught fire.
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09_10 Poisson Process - CEE 597 Lecture 10 Poisson Process...

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