08 Reliability Trees Prob Review

08 Reliability Trees Prob Review - CEE 597 Lecture 08...

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CEE 597 – Lecture 08 Probability, Reliability Analysis, 7 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 1
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This Week Monday - Bhopal, Natural Hazards, Threat Assessment ree articles in packet; co rse hando t Three articles in packet; course handout Wednesday - Event Trees and Fault Trees Probability review Friday - Reliability Analyses Morgan article, Reading in Risk, pp. 24-25 Rasmussen, Reading in Risk, pp. 197-201 Yen and Tung, Reliability and Uncertainty in Packet Course handout. 7 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 2
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Readings on Event and Fault Trees Morgan, Reading in Risk , pp. 24-25 asmussen, eading in Risk, p. 197- 01 Rasmussen, Reading in Risk, pp. 197 201 is handout. This handout. 7 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 3
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Learning Objectives 1.Be able to formulate, manipulate and evaluate: Influence Diagrams Event Trees Decision trees Fault Trees 2. Be able to construct fault trees, event trees and risk profiles for realistic problems and to compute the sulting estimates of failure probabilities resulting estimates of failure probabilities. 7 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 4
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y R Wilson and E Crouch by R. Wilson and E. Crouch Risk Estimation using Historical Data Easy to understand and perceived as accurate Models still required to make predictions because of trends in age, miles traveled, exposure, technology Only works if accidents have occurred at a sufficient rate over sufficient time to allow estimation of their frequency Models of Technologies Probabilistic models (event and fault trees) can be used to estimate the new OR rare risks Need to identify possible and likely failure modes Calculate prob. of failure events based upon component failures Risk by Analogy r small health risks with no historical data base can use cancer rates in For small health risks with no historical data base can use cancer rates in animals and volume or surface area relationships to estimate corresponding rates for humans. Must extrapolate from rodents to man, and from high to low doses. 7 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 5
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Event Trees and Fault Trees 7 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 6 Influence Diagrams Show relationships among information and decisions Good for organizing ideas and describing problems
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Influence Diagrams Show relationships among information and decisions. ood for organizing ideas and describing problems. Good for organizing ideas and describing problems. 7 February 2007 Jery Stedinger Lecture 08 7
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Influence Diagram urbines Spillway able to pass rated flow without failure? lood Warning Overtopping required to cause dam failure Turbines operational? Number of outlet
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This note was uploaded on 09/28/2008 for the course CEE 5970 taught by Professor Stedinger during the Spring '07 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).

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08 Reliability Trees Prob Review - CEE 597 Lecture 08...

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