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The Hot Hand Lecture 5.docx

The Hot Hand Lecture 5.docx - EC 370 Lecture 5 The Hot Hand...

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EC 370 Lecture 5 The Hot Hand Survey Questions o Is have a basketball player more likely to make a shot after having made two or three or missed two or three? (91% yes) o Second foul shot more likely after a make? (68% yes) o Are you more likely to shoot after making a few? (96% yes) o Should you pass to the player who has made a few? (84% yes) o How likely is a 50% shooter to make a shot? After a make (61%) After a miss (42%) What is the Hot Hand? o A feeling of warmth after success o A confidence in one’s ability o A higher level of focus o A higher probability of making the next shot Only this is a statistical question This hypothesis can be tested The Law of Large Numbers o In repeated trials with a fixed probability (p) of success, the percentage of successes approaches p as number of trials increases o That is, flip a coin lots of times and you will almost certainly have about 50% heads o The sample success percentage is “representative” of the probability of success
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