Final_lecture

# Final_lecture - How We Know What I sn’t So The real...

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Unformatted text preview: How We Know What I sn’t So The real purpose of [the] scientific method is to make sure Nature hasn’t misled you into thinking you know something you actually don’t know.- R. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance Studies of the effectiveness of the portacaval shunt Amount of Support Design Marked Moderate None No controls 24 7 1 Non random Controls 10 3 2 Randomized Controls 1 3 I ntuitions regarding the hot hand of 100 Cornell and Stanford University basketball fans. Does a player have a better chance of making a shot after just having made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three shot? Yes = 91% No = 9% I ntuitions regarding the hot hand of 100 Cornell and Stanford University basketball fans. Consider a hypothetical player who shoots 50% from the field. What is your estimate of his field goal percentage for those shots he takes after having just made a shot? M = 61% What is your estimate of his field goal percentage for those shots he takes after having just missed a shot? M = 42% Probability of making a shot conditioned on the outcome of the previous shot for nine members of the Philadelphia 76ers....
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## This note was uploaded on 10/17/2008 for the course PSYCH 2800 taught by Professor Gilovich,t/regan,d during the Spring '08 term at Cornell.

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Final_lecture - How We Know What I sn’t So The real...

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