Judgment_under_uncertainty - IntuitiveJudgment...

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Intuitive Judgment
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Which bet would you choose?
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Percentage of Participants Choosing the Large Box (Odds with small box = 10%; with large box = value on x-axis) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 9% 8% 7% 6% 5%
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Two Systems of Reasoning Intuitive” Automatic Effortless Rapid Concrete Associative intensional Reflective” Controlled Effortful Slow, often serial May be abstract Rule-based May be extensional
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The Common Mechanics of Judgment The intuitive system offers up an automatic assessment that can be taken as a heuristic guide to the judgment at hand. The heuristic assessment can seem satisfactory, so that the rational system is never engaged, or the heuristic assessment passes inspection by the rational system
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Special purpose heuristics: Height as guide for ability as basketball player. Fame as guide for quality as an academic. Use restricted to specific domains. Automatic Assessments/Heuristics General Use Heuristics: Affect Availability Representativeness (Similarity)
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The power of mindless requests Request only: “Excuse me, I have 5 (20) pages. May I use the Xerox machine?” Placebic information: “Excuse me, I have 5 (20) pages. May I use the Xerox machine because I have to make copies?” Real information: “Excuse me, I have 5 (20) pages. May I use the Xerox machine because I’m in a rush?”
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Percent Compliance Favor Request Only Placebic Information Real Information Small 60% 93% 94% Large 24% 24% 42%
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The Affect Heuristic
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An airline on a routine commuter flight crashed in a remote, uninhabited area. One passenger survived the flight with only minor injuries, and set out to walk to safety. He died of exposure before making it all the way. How much should his family be awarded in compensation? $538,000 if he made it to within 75 miles of civilization $700,000 if he made it to within 1/4 mile of civilization The Affect Heuristic (and Counterfactual Thinking)
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Familiarity and Liking The letter-name effect Consumer products Political candidates
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“xx migrating birds die each year by drowning in uncovered oil ponds, which the birds mistake for bodies of water. Covering the ponds with nets could prevent these deaths. How much money would you be willing to pay to provide the needed nets?” 2,000 birds — $80 The Affect Heuristic 20,000 birds — $78 200,000 birds — $88
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Availability Judging the size of a category or the likelihood of an event by how easily information comes to mind. The easier information is to generate, the larger or more
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This note was uploaded on 10/17/2008 for the course PSYCH 2800 taught by Professor Gilovich,t/regan,d during the Spring '08 term at Cornell University (Engineering School).

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Judgment_under_uncertainty - IntuitiveJudgment...

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