overconfidence - BiasesinEverydayJudgment...

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Biases in Everyday Judgment Prelim #2 next Tuesday April 1 (no fooling) Question and Answer Session Monday 6-7:30 Uris 202
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“I really do believe we will be greeted as liberators” — Dick Cheney, 3/16/03 “…[the war] could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months… — Donald Rumsfeld, February 2003 “The American part of this will be $1.7 billion. We have no plans for any further-on funding for this…” —Administration official Andrew Natsios, discussing the costs to U.S. taxpayers of rebuilding Iraq “…[Iraq is] a country that can finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon.” — Paul Wolfowitz
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“That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.” Admiral William Leahy, to President Truman, 1945 “The odds of a meltdown are one in 10,000 years.” Vitali Skylarov, Minister of Power and Electrification in the Ukraine, two months before the Chernobyl accident “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, president of the British Royal Society “A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability.” Harvard Economics Society, November 16, 1929
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Is jute? (a) a cereal crop (b) a fiber crop Which metal is denser? (a) iron (b) copper In which country is life expectancy higher? (a) Argentina (b) Canada Confidence and Calibration
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Confidence and Calibration 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Britain Hong Kong Indonesia Malaysia Expressed Confidence Percent Correct
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Overconfidence in Social Predictions Would the target person…. prefer to subscribe to Playboy or The New York Review of Books? describe his/her lecture notes as “neat” or “messy”? say s/he would “pocket” or “turn in” $5 found on the ground? Would the target person…. object when the experimenter referred to him/her by the wrong name? comb his/her hair before posing for a photograph in the lab? How confident are you in your answer? 50%___ 55%___ 60%___ 65%___ 70%___ 75%___ 80%___ 85%___ 90%___ 95%___ 100%___
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Overconfidence in Social Predictions Mean confidence = 75.7% Mean accuracy = 60.8% When 100% confident, accuracy = 78.5%
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Will you…. Visit San Francisco more than 3 times this year? Participate in the dorm play? Drop a course? Question your decision to attend Stanford? Become best friends with your roommate? Visit a friend more than 100 miles away? Get a new boy/girlfriend?
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overconfidence - BiasesinEverydayJudgment...

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