Lecture 7

Lecture 7 - 08.08.25 Extra Credit...

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08.08.25 Extra Credit: Http://rscgsurveys.com/helix/rescue/slideshow3.php Extra Credit: Survey on Wednesday (before quiz) Taxicab Problem - Cab was involved in a hit and run accident at night. Two cab companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. You are given the following data: o 33% of cabs in the city are Green and 67% are Blue (Base rate) o A witness identified the cab as Green. The court tested the reliability of the witness under the same circumstances that existed on the night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly identified each one of the 2 colors 50% of the time and failed 50% of the time. (Case cue, base rate) o What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue rather than Green? 67% - base rate neglect - o studied Harvard medical students and residents o asked question about medical diagnoses (base rate problem) o 99/100 times right o Doctors said close to 100% o Correct answer is close to 0 - real life example
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This note was uploaded on 10/21/2008 for the course PSYC 103 taught by Professor Pearlberg during the Summer '07 term at UCSD.

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Lecture 7 - 08.08.25 Extra Credit...

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