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:- uuuuuuuu Student lD number:
MODELLING WITH ECONOMETRICS ECMSMEC
QUIZ 2 -—_—__ 1. Which of the following correctly identifies a difference between cross—sectional
data and time series data? (0.5 marks) a. Cross-sectional data is based on temporal ordering, whereas time series data is
not. .Time series data is based on temporal ordering, whereas cross-sectional data is .._______,
not. c. Cross-sectional data consists of only qualitative variables, where-as time series
data consists of only quantitative variables. d. Time series data consists of only qualitative variables, whereas cross-sectional
data does not include qualitative variables. 2. A process is stationary if: (0.5 marks) a. any collection of random variables in a sequence is taken and shifted ahead by
h time periods; the joint probability distribution changes. .my collection of random variables in a sequence is taken and shifted ahead by h time periods, the 'oint robabilit distribution remains unchanged. 0. there is serial correlation between the error terms of successive time periods
and the explanatory variables and the error terms have positive covariance. d. there is no serial correlation between the error terms of successive time periods
and the explanatory variables and the error terms have positive covariance. 3. With base year 1990, the index of industrial production for the year 1929 is
__1LZ. What will be the value of the index in 1999, if the base year is changed to 1982 and the index measured 96 in 1982? (0.5 marks) a. 112.24
b 116.66 :_ %%x 100
c 85.71
d. 92.09 4. Unit root processes, such as a random walk (with or without drift), are said to
_—.'—'-—_-——_—.
be: (0.5 marks) .integrated of order one. :2 IC 1) b. integrated of order mm.
c. sequentially exogenous. d. asymptotically uncorrelated. ECMBMEC Semester 1 2017 £2 LMﬁﬁﬁE
Student ID number: 5. Using the data in the VOLATRAW ﬁle provided with the textbook, the regression equation below was estimated. The variable rsp500 is the monthly return on the Wrepresemed as an annual rate. (This includes price changes as well as dividends.) The variable 1'3 is the return on three-
mﬂﬂand 21:12 is the percentage change in industrial production; these are
also speciﬁed as annual rates. T 6 standard errors are reported in the parentheses
rsp500t = 18.84 + 0.036 pcipi— 1. 36 1'31. + ut
.— (3.27) (0.129) (0.54)
n=557 R2=0.012 a. Interpret the signs and magnitudes of the coefﬁcients. (0.5 marks) «.11»— Q. 031; I1MMM-M.M11MMM1__ 11111-1111---.9MM/ Jung—___ ..._.—_ ___” ________ ”.115. :.--.::.L.315.-_'.---l-ﬁz--13111111414.1o.-__1é1_-£112~1&n-gn--11111M3m1mM T- bi ([9
M11111 _____ 115.1121.--La-------19.3.G..Z--_.QE111911<1.---11.1-1114.---mmiég :11wa
911-16.111.6‘Eav1mé19 _____________________________________________________ b. Which of the variables are statistically signiﬁcant? (0. 5 marks) No.12. ______ E ca.___<tfi1.___§1§mc (M.-m--1211u13+--{1151---te. 11-10.---Q111‘J. 1%an 1-91: :MMM‘COMOT ....................................................... 3%.---
___tfﬁh.mb1ﬂrﬁ.-;-_-________-.6._.:_ Q. Z?5.------:1;_:-_JltﬁdflL-ﬁ._.__.=_—_:=_—.:... '— 23‘;
‘ 0 126 . CNEUAQ Hanan. L5 i C56 0.1 5‘& <43hld’lmncg [9142.115 PL Lt «9111111111223
.9451 c. Do your findings from part ([1) imply that the return on the S&P 500 IS qth'fi
{éﬁﬁpredictablﬂ Explain. (0.5 marks) ----.“1.C?.‘.t_-__£1.c_11111_1 _____ 1i _S.--1£[email protected]¢M§.__119.. ______ 1.1 f1141___cg.n__¢m pm (19.113
“riﬂe.--114.--Lo:1c.119.11----1n.c;::11:1 ..... maneubcz..-111:;[email protected]:.--_-701 -11: ohm . (U -----M9.».---19.-:1n911-1111.---jEM.___.menrmui--1;3¢21. - m _____ 120 11me— "1-111121111111113... ........ QﬁégizclMigEmf¢ﬁc-mi1C-LELRMM_§_ 91.241190- 51“”
......... meﬂauied- ECM3MEC Semester 1 2017 5% LATROBE
Student ID number:
6. The variable hrwage is the average hourly wage in the US. economy, and outphr is output per hour. Accordingly, the growth in hourly wage and in output per hour can
be represented as the change in the natural log values: ghrirvage = Alog(hmvage) and gozrgohr =A log(outphr). Consider the following estimated equation: Pi ta ghrwage {2—0.0} 0+0. 728 gozuphrr+0.458 goutjmrw L fl) (0005) (0.167) (0.166) This allows an increase in productivity growth to have both a current and lagged effect on wage growth. a. Is the lagged value of goutphr statistically signiﬁcant as per reported standard error in the parentheses? [sﬁWhat does it indicate? (1 mark) armogapio _ ________i’:::f__?:iti: _____
Gathctaamﬂmaébmfﬁd __;__-Y_L::__l':'__‘:_.lt+_-9§..:_.52,).__J25.- ...... 'ﬁaxlmtic. _-____lz_3:é___t__-_ﬂfu_ aﬂtdﬁL _--le_:§£'il21ﬁ-i‘l9;ii2__é£_[é_aé mm" 1. 66
_~____C:K:Ff ___________ @ﬁ ______ QJHLL _ C} Id: of (“flab-f ”Man i ﬁg Mama: 3 L I; 1;; :7 ----- a "777—77 ------------------------------ ____"ﬁlls._Lﬂam__ﬁrst"Jaéeratmnragmtnyfa__Hn-_c_tzf_"Eliza 0qu (2mm fated maﬁaﬁmiﬁa’i‘iﬁnl‘aq allege-z--.z{i___ﬁ?roaéur;flurfy ymwﬂt
hm cc C'ijﬂidi‘c'anf efﬁctf on Way; 5' cal/t4) , Huge, Way, amuﬂi all/M b. If [31 + [1’2 = 1, a permanent increase in produc ivity growth is fully passed on in {sﬁlhigher wage growth after one year. Test H0: 31 + 32 = 1 against the two- sided alternative. Please show all the possible steps and the new equation structure. (0.5 marks) (Hint: Remember, one way to do this is to write the equation so that 6 = [31 + 32 appears directly in the model, as an example of re—parameterization.) a3C)-;iti-1EL.__;)___1gi_;;___9__:_ﬁ3h ________________________________________________ e.-- --CL--_.24:.EL4§1{IQD.__[__’D____E_€.§;an£JA.L-_-%_i’L£MJﬂ ._.;___f;0_t__a3c=_atf4[t + [31601; 10:30
. 62) ....... 99 -u LtellatnééuLﬁmtfhf 17-1-; cmtplhf -lu.r-fm--£LLzl__fﬂ_grQ1<LEW) £7Ami’7fc’ﬂ
-_-_L2=l____da_,__atcﬂa_£éza _____ gamma..- %_:&,_m‘éccigi__tawilfm (50% ‘6
7a--- a:___heuzae_;ia_c_r_aaia-mitu__MAL", _______________________________________ _____ 3 cufphgmw
I: W” +2451" +£0.- 0 Ed Wm Hi: 9 13' ECM3MEC Semester 1 2017 cm 6'77 l
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