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See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: Water Scarcity, Climate Change, and Water Quality: Three Economic Essays ARTICLE Source: OAI READS 795 1 AUTHOR: Yongxia Cai RTI International 19 PUBLICATIONS 124 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Available from: Yongxia Cai Retrieved on: 01 March 2016
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WATER SCARCITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND WATER QUALITY: THREE ECONOMIC ESSAYS A Dissertation by YONGXIA CAI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY May 2009 Major Subject: Agricultural Economics
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WATER SCARCITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND WATER QUALITY: THREE ECONOMIC ESSAYS A Dissertation by YONGXIA CAI Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved by: Chairs of Committee, Bruce A. McCarl Committee Members, David Bessler W. Douglas Shaw Raghavan Srinivasan Ximing Wu Head of Department, John P. Nichols May 2009 Major Subject: Agricultural Economics
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iii ABSTRACT Water Scarcity, Climate Change, and Water Quality: Three Economic Essays. (May 2009) Yongxia Cai, B.E., Northwestern Polytechnic University; M.E., Northwestern Polytechnic University; M.A.B, Texas A&M University Chairs of Advisory Committee: Dr. Bruce A. McCarl This dissertation is composed of three essays investigating three aspects of future water issues. The first essay focuses on an examination of water scarcity issues caused by rapid population growth and economic development in Texas. The second essay examines water scarcity under climate change scenarios in Texas. The third essay discusses arsenic-related water quality issues in the drinking water. An integrated economic, hydrological, and environmental model is developed for the first two essays by implicitly incorporating uncertainty about future climate, water demand from all types of water use, a spatial river flow relationship, interaction between ground and surface water, institutional regulations, and the possibilities of inter-basin water transfers (IBTs). In studying water scarcity under economic growth and population growth, we find that while some cities and counties have sufficient water, there are some other
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iv cities and counties (especially Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin) facing different degrees of water scarcity problems. In studying the climate change impact, four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESs) yield consistent results. Water scarcity becomes even more severe for cities. Texas realizes slight gains in earlier periods and a net loss beginning in 2060. This study finds that twelve IBTs, if there is no climate change, and fourteen IBTs, under the climate change scenario, will be economically feasible in 2060. These IBTs can not only greatly reduce water scarcity, but also create new growth opportunity for Houston. Water is transferred from in-stream flow in source basins. There is no significant impact on other sectors except in-stream flow and water flow out to bay.
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