Follain-RE mkts in declining cities.pdf

Follain-RE mkts in declining cities.pdf - Electronic copy...

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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1736010 JAMES R. FOLLAIN, PH.D. RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING AMERICA SPECIAL REPORT A STUDY OF REAL ESTATE MARKETS IN DECLINING CITIES 10296
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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1736010 2 A Study of Real Estate Markets in Declining Cities © Research Institute for Housing America December 2010. All rights reserved. 10296 RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR HOUSING AMERICA SPECIAL REPORT A STUDY OF REAL ESTATE MARKETS IN DECLINING CITIES JAMES R. FOLLAIN, PH.D.
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A Study of Real Estate Markets in Declining Cities 3 © Research Institute for Housing America December 2010. All rights reserved. Research Institute for Housing America Board of Trustees Chair Teresa Bryce, Esq. Radian Group Inc. Michael W. Young Cenlar FSB Nancee Mueller Wells Fargo Edward L. Hurley Avanath Capital Partners LLC Steve Graves Principal Real Estate Investors Dena Yocom IMortgage Staff Jay Brinkmann, Ph.D. Senior Vice President, Research and Business Development Chief Economist Mortgage Bankers Association Michael Fratantoni, Ph.D. Vice President, Research and Economics Mortgage Bankers Association
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4 A Study of Real Estate Markets in Declining Cities © Research Institute for Housing America December 2010. All rights reserved. Acknowledgments I am particularly grateful to Michael Sklarz of Collateral Analytics (www.collateralyanalytics.com ) and Dennis Capozza (www.ufanet.com/Dennis_Capozza.htm), both of whom provided essential data for the paper. I also benefitted from several discussions with George Galster, who has just completed a new book about the experiences of one of the classic notions of declining city — Detroit. Barbara Follain provided excellent assistance in the literature review and in final editions. Michael Fratantoni was helpful in every phase of the project from its initial conception to the final version. I would also like to thank Garrett Cruce and Coeli Jones at MBA for their efforts in producing the final document.
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A Study of Real Estate Markets in Declining Cities 5 © Research Institute for Housing America December 2010. All rights reserved. Executive Summary 7 Section I: Introduction 11 Section II: Types of Declining Cities 13 Traditional Notion of a Declining City 13 Environmental Disasters: New Orleans 15 Other Types of Declining Cities Emerging 16 A Look at Some Patterns over the Last 40 Years 18 A Closer Look at Seven Metro Areas 21 Section III: What Happens to Real Estate Values in Declining Cities? 25 A Look at a Simple House Price Model for the Seven Metro Areas 32 Conclusions Regarding Question #1 33 Section IV: What Is the Range of Experiences for Neighborhoods within Declining Cities? 35 Choosing Measures of Neighborhood Decline 36 2000 Vacancy Data 37 USPS Data for 2008 and 2010 42 Analysis of Stockton and Cleveland Housing Data 46 Conclusions 54 TABLE OF CONTENTS
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6 A Study of Real Estate Markets in Declining Cities © Research Institute for Housing America December 2010. All rights reserved.
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