4-1laws_sp07

4-1laws_sp07 - Probability Formal study of uncertainty The...

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Probability Formal study of uncertainty The engine that drives statistics Primary objective of lecture unit 4 : use the rules of probability to calculate appropriate measures of uncertainty.
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Introduction Nothing in life is certain We gauge the chances of successful outcomes in business, medicine, weather, and other everyday situations such as the lottery (recall the birthday problem)
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History For most of human history, probability, the formal study of the laws of chance, has been used for only one thing: gambling
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History (cont.) Nobody knows exactly when gambling began; goes back at least as far as ancient Egypt where 4- sided “astragali” (made from animal heelbones) were used
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History (cont.) The Roman emperor Claudius (10BC- 54AD) wrote the first known treatise on gambling. The book “How to Win at Gambling” was lost. Rule 1: Let Caesar win IV out of V times
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Approaches to Probability Relative frequency event probability = x/n, where x=# of occurrences of event of
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4-1laws_sp07 - Probability Formal study of uncertainty The...

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