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Conflict and Uncertainty Surrounding the Falklands War The once Argentine-controlled Falkland Islands have been the subject of great debate since the British claim to sovereignty in 1833. Dissent towards the British government and its methods of control have always remained high in Argentina, but by the early 1980s it was believed by the Argentine military junta that the repossession of the islands would unite the citizens of the country behind the government through patriotic zeal ("The Falklands War"). If the Argentinean government had known with undoubted certainty how Great Britain would have responded to their reclamation of the land, their decision of whether or not to invade would have been simple. However, because the government was uncertain of the British response, Argentina was forced to play a game with imperfect information in deciding how to proceed. The Argentines were uncertain of the British reaction due to a lack of information. They did not know whether they were dealing with a passive British government that would have sanctioned their recovery of the Falkland Islands after a successful invasion, or dealing with an aggressive British government that would have responded with a counter military attack. It was thus vital for Argentina to strategically predict the type of British government they were going to have to face. If the British were to attack in response to an Argentine invasion and the countries were immersed in war, the Argentine government's hopes of national unity through swift and effortless repossession would have been crushed and counter-productive to the junta's original goal ("The Falklands War"). In order to more efficiently predict the type of the British government, the Argentines had to devise two separate games in which one was based on the inference that Great Britain would be passive, and the other based on the supported suspicion that Great Britain would be aggressive. In both games Argentina had to decide whether it should do nothing and maintain the status quo or be active and invade the islands. If Argentina decided to invade, Great Britain must then decide if it will counter-attack and cause a war, or if it will silently condone Argentina's invasion and repossession of the land by not reacting with force or threats. In both games Argentina's payoffs for the actions it could take are the same and
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This note was uploaded on 11/19/2008 for the course ECON 101 taught by Professor Womer during the Fall '08 term at NYU.

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paper example - Conflict and Uncertainty Surrounding the...

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