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Solution_ Homework4_Forecasting

Solution_ Homework4_Forecasting - 311 Operations Management...

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311 Operations Management Fall 2008 Solution: Homework # 4 – Forecasting 1. (30 points, 10 points each part) Question 11 on page 508 of the book. Demand MA(3) AD ES(0.3) AD 110 110 130 110 20 150 116 34 170 130 40 126.2 43.8 160 150 10 139.34 20.66 180 160 20 145.538 34.462 140 170 30 155.876 6 15.8766 130 160 30 151.113 6 21.11362 140 150 10 144.779 5 4.779534 MAD 23.3333 3 24.33647 Each forecast and AD column is worth 5 points. Moving average smoothing is better. (10 points) 2. (30 points, 10 points each part) Question 14 on page 508 of the book. Demand ES(0.3) AD Level Trend Forecast AD 31 31 30 1 31 34 31 3 31 1 32 2 33 31.9 1.1 32.6 1.18 33.78 0.78 35 32.23 2.77 33.546 1.1098 34.6558 0.3442 37 33.061 3.939 34.759 1 1.1407 8 35.8998 1.10016 36 34.242 7 1.7573 36.229 9 1.2397 9 37.4697 1.46968 38 34.769 9 3.2301 1 37.028 8 1.1075 2 38.1363 0.1363 40 35.738 9 4.2610 8 38.095 4 1.0952 5 39.1907 0.80934 40 37.017 2 2.9827 5 39.433 5 1.1681 40.6016 0.60156 41 37.912 1 3.0879 3 40.421 1 1.1139 5 41.535 0.53505 MAD 2.9031 0.86403 1
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3 Each forecast and AD column is worth 5 points. Exponential Smoothing with trend is better. (10 points) Depending on the whether one thinks that the initial forecast is generated by historic data or not. One may have 10 AD instead of 9 AD, and MADs become 2.61 and 0.78. You will receive full credit.
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