Lecture 6 student handout-1.pdf

Lecture 6 student handout-1.pdf - Stats Lecture 6...

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Stats Lecture 6: Probability Cichello 1 Other “interesting” questions What is the probability that I select either a female student or a concert-goer? - Pr(C U F) = A) 34.1 + 26.4 – 11.0 B) 15.4 + 11.0 + 23.1 C) 26.4 + 23.1 D) 34.1 + 15.4 E) 100 – 50.5 F) All of the above Are C & F statistically independent? Are C & F mutually exclusive? How about C and C’? Are C & F collectively exhaustive? How about C & C’? Suppose Pr(Fr) = .80; Pr(UP | Fr) = .50, can we find Pr(Fr | UP)? What if we know Pr(UP) = .45? UP FR C F 11.0 15.4 23.1 34.1 26.4 50.5
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Stats Lecture 6: Probability Cichello 2 Terms and Notation to know ** Conditional probability ** - Ex. Pr(C | F) - Given that F is true, what is the probability of C occurring? Intersection, ∩ - Think “AND” - Ex. Pr(C ∩ F) Union, U - Think “OR” - Ex. Pr(C U F) Mutually Exclusive - No outcome is in more than one event - Pr(A ∩ B) = ø Collectively Exhaustive - The set of events include every possible outcome in the sample space (some may be in more than one event) Complement Rule: Pr(F C ) = 1 – Pr(F) Addition Rule: P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) Conditional Probability: ) Pr( ) Pr( ) | Pr( A A
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