21 Questions.docx

# 21 Questions.docx - 1 Given the following history use a...

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1 Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note, the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2nd quarter Apr, May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; and 4th quarter Oct, Nov, Dec. 1 Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product: Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter .5, the second most recent .25, and the third .25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. 1 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of operation: If a three-month moving average is used to smooth this series, what would have been the forecast for May?

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1 The following tabulations are actual sales of units for six months and a starting forecast in January. 1 Calculate forecasts for the remaining five months using simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.2. 1 Calculate MAD for the forecasts. 1 The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months: 1 Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of .30 and an initial forecast ( F 1 ) of 31. 1 Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an α of .30, a δ of .30, an initial trend forecast ( T 1 ) of 1, and an initial exponentially smoothed forecast ( F 1 ) of 30. 1 Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecast. Which is best?
1 Actual demand for a product for the past three months was 1 Using a simple three-month moving average, make a forecast for this month. 1 If 300 units were actually demanded this month, what would your forecast be for next month? 1 Using simple exponential smoothing, what would your forecast be for this month if the exponentially smoothed forecast for three months ago was 450 units and the smoothing constant was 0.20?

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• Fall '17
• Dippold, Steffi

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