Practice Manual Simulation Problems 1 - 2 Solutions(2) (2).docx

Practice Manual Simulation Problems 1 - 2 Solutions(2) (2).docx

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Practice Simulation Problems Solutions 1. The Paris Bakery ha decided to bake 30 batches of its famous beignets at the beginning of each day. The store has determine that daily demand will follow the distribution shown below: Daily Demand Probability 15 0.14 20 0.22 25 0.27 30 0.37 Each batch costs the Paris Bakery $50 and can be sold for $100. The Paris Bakery can sell any unsold batches for $25 the next day. Simulate 1 month (25 days) of operation to calculate the bakery’s total monthly profit. Use column 1 of the random number table. The simulation below is based on using column 1 from the random number table. Probability Distributions for Demand No. of Batches Demanded Probabilities Cumulative Probabilities Random Number Intervals 15 .14 .14 1 – 14 20 .22 .36 15 – 36 25 .27 .63 37 – 63 30 .37 1.00 64 - 100 Simulation Model for 25 Days Day Random No. for Demand Demand Revenue at $100/ batch Revenue at $25/ batch Total Revenue Cost Profit 1 52 25 2500 2500 1500 1000 2 37 25 2500 125 2625 1500 1125 3 82 30 3000 125 3125 1500 1625 4 69 30 3000 3000 1500 1500 5 98 30 3000 3000 1500 1500 6 96 30 3000 3000 1500 1500 7 33 20 2000 2000 1500 500 8 50 25 2500 250
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