Abdulrahman Almudayhishmmmmmmmmmmmm.docx

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Abdulrahman Almudayhish Prof. Donna 28/04/2017 Forecasting Problems Problem 11-14: 1) Three-period Moving Average: Moving Average is a technique in which the value of the next period is forecasted by calculating the sum of the values of the previous k periods and dividing by the number of k periods. To clarify, in this problem, we want to forecast Jeannette’s GPA in the next semester (Fall), and we can do that by figure out the moving average by summing the total Jeannette’s GPA in the previous three semesters (Fall, Winter, Spring) and dividing them by three. Three-period moving average= 2.8 + 3.6 + 3.2 3 = 3.2 This means that the forecasted GPA for next semester is 3.2 (see figure 1). 2) Exponential smoothing: Figure 1

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This technique calculates the forecast for a  period which is equal the to the previous period, adjusted by fraction  (alpha=0.3) which is determined in the question, of the forecast error in the  previous period. The forecasted GPA is 3.123. 3) Weighted Moving Average: The technique used in Weighted Moving Average is giving weights for different periods, and the sum of the weighting Figure 2 Figure 3
should be added up to 1. This technique regards that the current periods are more relevant than older periods. Thus, it assigns a heavier weighting to the current periods. To illustrate, I assigned the weights as following: PERIOD WEIGHT SPRING (last semester) 3

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