Econ171-EEP151_Topic_8_Labor_Migration_Demography.pdf

Econ171-EEP151_Topic_8_Labor_Migration_Demography.pdf -...

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Econ 171/EEP 151: Development Economics Topic 2 – Labor, Migration, Demographics, and Development David Roland-Holst University of California, Berkeley Tuesday, Thursday, 11-12:30 A1 Hearst Field Annex
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2 2 October 2017 Population: Historical trends
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3 2 October 2017 Incremental Population Growth, 1750-2200
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4 2 October 2017 Spatial Distribution of Population
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5 2 October 2017 The Demographic Transition Stage I: High birthrates and death rates Stage II: Continued high birthrates, declining death rates Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates, eventually stabilizing
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6 2 October 2017 Demographic Transitions North and South
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7 2 October 2017 What to expect, Populations and Annual Growth Rate by Region
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8 2 October 2017 Demographic Indictors for Selected Countries, 2012
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9 2 October 2017 Population Challenges and Opportunities Challenge: Hidden Momentum of Population Growth § High birth rates cannot be altered overnight § Age structure of populations Opportunity: Significant progress to build on
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10 2 October 2017 Population Structure Matters: Pyramids of Age and Gender World population growth through history
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11 2 October 2017 Dependency Ratios Definition Comparison between the productive (working)and non- productive (non working) population. Often expressed in non-productive per 100 productive. OLD DEPENDANTS ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE YOUNG DEPENDANTS MALES To the left FEMALES To the right
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12 2 October 2017 Non-productive population Refers to the very old (usually >65 years of age) and the very young ( usually <15 ). Considered to be the “non-productive” segments of society because they are not part of the labor force.
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13 2 October 2017 Productive population Between 15 and 65 years of age. This portion of the population constitutes the labor force. However, it has now been revised to consider lower than 20 years in developed countries (increasing time spent for education).
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14 2 October 2017 How is it Calculated? 0-14yrs (children) + 65+yrs (Elderly) 15-64yrs (Those of working age) Example : UK 2001 (figures in millions) 11.105 + 9.341 38.342 Ratio of the dependent population (aged 0 to 14 years and 65 years and over) to that of the non-dependent population (working age - 15 to 64 years). 53.33 Thus for every 100 people of working age, there were 53.33 people dependent upon them. x100 x100
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15 2 October 2017 Example: China’s Aging Population
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16 2 October 2017 Theories of Fertility: Malthusian and Household Models Malthusian Population Trap § Classical Malthus: Rising population and diminishing returns to fixed factors lead to steady state poverty (population trap) § Neo-Malthusian: Humans will exhaust the carrying capacity of the planet, leading to chronic cycles of famine and perhaps extinction.
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17 2 October 2017 Classical Malthusian Trap (S,T) OECD DCs
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18 2 October 2017 Household Microeconomic Theory of Fertility Why do households ”decide” to have children? Children are a source of § Satisfaction -
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