eurozone crises impact on developing world.pdf

eurozone crises impact on developing world.pdf - Overseas...

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Overseas Development Institute Working Paper 345 Results of ODI research presented in preliminary form for discussion and critical comment ODI at 50: advancing knowledge, shaping policy, inspiring practice • The euro zone crisis and developing countries Isabella Massa, Jodie Keane and Jane Kennan
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Working Paper 345 The euro zone crisis and developing countries Isabella Massa, Jodie Keane and Jane Kennan May 2012 Overseas Development Institute 111 Westminster Bridge Road London SE1 7JD * Disclaimer: The views presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ODI.
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ii Acknowledgements ODI gratefully acknowledges the support of DFID in the production of this Working Paper. The authors are also grateful to Prof. Stephany Griffith-Jones and Dr Dirk Willem te Velde for valuable comments and suggestions. ISBN 978-1-907288-66-1 Working Paper (Print) ISSN 1759 2909 ODI Working Papers (Online) ISSN 1759 2917 © Overseas Development Institute 2012 Readers are encouraged to quote or reproduce material from ODI Working Papers for their own publications, as long as they are not being sold commercially. For online use, we ask readers to link to the original resource on the ODI website. As copyright holder, ODI requests due acknowledgement and a copy of the publication.
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iii Contents Acknowledgements ii Tables and figures iv Acronyms vi Executive summary vii 1 Introduction 1 2 Poor countries’ vulnerability to the euro zone crisis 2 2.1 Channels of impact 2 2.2 Vulnerability indicators 3 2.2.1 Exposure indicators 3 2.2.2 Resilience indicators 17 2.2.3 Human capital indicators 23 2.2.4 Vulnerability to China’s slow-down 26 3 Scenario analysis 29 4 Current impacts of the euro zone crisis on poor countries 31 4.1 Trade 31 4.2 Private capital flows 36 4.3 ODA 39 4.4 Growth 40 5 Country-specific effects 44 5.1 Mozambique 44 5.2 Nigeria 45 5.3 Kenya 45 5.4 Cameroon 47 5.5 Summary of country case studies 48 6 Conclusions and policy implications 48 References 51 Annex 55
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iv Tables and figures Table 1: LICs and LMICs with a high trade dependence on the EU 5 Table 2: Exchange rate regimes 7 Table 3: Potential and actual trade effects reported 8 Table 4: Trade in services (% of GDP) 9 Table 5: International tourism, receipts (% of total exports, goods and services) 9 Table 6: Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received (% of GDP) 9 Table 7: ODA commitments and disbursements, % of GDP 17 Table 8: Poverty indicators for exporters highly dependent on the EU market 24 Table 9: Investment climate indicators for selected LICs: rankings, 2011 25 Table 10: Highest-value LIC/LMIC traders with China (2010) 27 Table 11: China's outward FDI flows to LDCs, 2005–10 (US$ million) 28 Table 12: Vulnerability of selected LICs and LMICs to the euro zone crisis 30 Table 13: Potential growth impact in LICs and LMICs of a -1% export growth shock 31 Table 14: Country groups of countries highly dependent on the EU market 33 Table 15: Trends in CDDC exports to the EU (monthly value, year-on-year growth rate %) 34
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