Lecture9 - Introduction to Population Dynamics Demography...

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    Introduction  to Population Dynamics  
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    Demography Fertility   Migration  Mortality    Causes Consequences
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    Course Outline What is Demography? Basic population processes Definitions &   Measures Variations Theories   Secondary population  processes   Consequences of population  processes Classic perspectives Recent perspectives and  empirical studies
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    Main Issues  Explaining variation in  demographic behavior     What is theory? Types of theory  Main fertility theories   
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    TFR Trend Red < 2 declining population Yellow ~ 2 stable population Green 3 - 4 growing population Blue 4 + rapidly growing population
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    Historical Trends     0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 #  of births per woman  World LDCs MDCS Global decline Higher fertility in LDCs,… .. But steeper declines in these countries in recent decades .. Below-replacement fertility in MDCs
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    What is a Theory? A proposed explanation of some aspect of the world Theories are found in all disciplines Theories can be broad or specific Theories are narrower than perspectives but broader (more elaborate) than frameworks Theories should be empirically testable.  
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    What is a Theory? A good theory should be supported by the facts but also parsimonious ; Theories are useful in identifying factors to include (i.e., worth considering in the explanation) as well as factors to exclude;
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