Proyecto-Final-México.pptx

Proyecto-Final-México.pptx - Proyecto Final México...

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Proyecto Final - México Jennifer Islas Quiroz A01328945 Ana Karen Viruel Corzo A01323891 Eduardo Morales Méndez A00398631
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Página principal
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PARTE A ¿Qué sucede con el desempleo?
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Análisis General Tasa de inflación y Tasa de Analfabetización Fórmula: Fórmula: 0.0858604117156815 + -0.698034940186228X4 + 0.152172806526295X2 64%
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PARTE B ¿Qué pasará con las variables analizadas del desempleo?
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Tasa de desempleo – Método Adaptativo MAPE = 8.61% Beta = 0.01 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.000% 1.000% 2.000% 3.000% 4.000% 5.000% 6.000% Pronósticos, tasa de desempleo % Desempleo Ft
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Crecimiento del PIB – Método Adaptativo MAPE = 12.02% Beta = 0.15 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -8.000% -6.000% -4.000% -2.000% 0.000% 2.000% 4.000% 6.000% 8.000% Crecimiento del PIB % crecimiento PIB X1 Ft
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Tasa de Inflación - Promedio Móvil Ponderado a= 0.85 b= 0.10 c= 0.05 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.0000% 1.0000% 2.0000% 3.0000% 4.0000% 5.0000% 6.0000% 7.0000% Tasa de inflación % inflación X2 Ft - TENDENCIA - MAPE = 13%
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Tasa de Crecimiento - Descomposición 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 f(x) = Crecimiento de la población % Crecimiento Linear (% Crecimiento) Valores ajustados y pronósticos MAPE = 16.33%
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