How Confirmation Bias Can Lead to a Spinning of Wheels - The New York Times.pdf

How Confirmation Bias Can Lead to a Spinning of Wheels - The New York Times.pdf

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2018/3/10 下午 5)29 How Confirmation Bias Can Lead to a Spinning of Wheels - The New York Times 1 ໚页(共 3 ໚页) https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/01/upshot/how-confirmation-bias-can-lead-to-a-spinning-of-wheels.html https://nyti.ms/109huhb The Upshot FORECASTS How Confirmation Bias Can Lead to a Spinning of Wheels Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers OCT. 31, 2014 A very simple experiment suggests that you, the reader of The Upshot, are not in fact the highly rational information processor you might think you are. The problem is that you seek out information that confirms your existing views, a mistake that psychologists call confirmation bias. And your confirmation bias may be the reason that our political debates remain intractable. After all, as you accumulate more evidence confirming your views, you’re less likely to question them, and less likely to change your mind. As members of competing political tribes collect more evidence in favor of their favored views, their opinions harden, and each tribe becomes more convinced of its correctness. How do I know that Upshot readers suffer from confirmation bias? We’ll have to start with some background to our experiment. The Upshot’s election forecasting model , which we’ve nicknamed Leo, is based on simulating thousands of Election Day possibilities. Leo adds up how often either party wins control of the Senate. On our most recent run, Republicans were the winner in
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