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Week 2 Lecture Notes Added (1).pdf

# Week 2 Lecture Notes Added (1).pdf - Econ 102A Statistical...

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Econ 102A Statistical Methods for Social Scientists Page 1 of 3 Medical Testing Example from First-Lecture Quiz Suppose you are a physician testing an individual for a certain disease. Before examining the patient, you believe there is a 1% chance the person has the disease. You decide to administer a medical test to the patient which is pretty accurate at detecting the disease but not always 100% accurate. In particular, if the person has the disease the test will be positive 85% of the time; if the person does not have the disease the test will be negative 90% of the time. Suppose the patient is now tested and the test result unfortunately comes back positive. What do you now think is the chance the person actually has the disease? The initial probability tree model for this situation is given by: Upon flipping the above probability tree, the relevant path is: and we see that P(Disease | Positive Test) = .0791. Yes No .01 .99 Disease?

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