252-11-'18-CO2 & Climate.pdf - CO2 climate Topic 11 1 Chem 505 Chem 505 Alterna(ve Energy has 8 lectures on this topic but since it won't be held in

252-11-'18-CO2 & Climate.pdf - CO2 climate Topic 11 1...

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Unformatted text preview: CO2 & climate Topic 11 1 Chem 505 •  Chem 505 Alterna(ve Energy has 8 lectures on this topic but since it won't be held in 2018 and is only probable but uncertain for 2019, I have expanded this topic in 252. Rise of Environmentalism Silent Spring (1962) •Helped launch the modern environmental movement •Revealed ill effects of DDT on bird life •Carson violently aLacked at the Nme •EPA founded 1970. •DDT banned from 1972 The sedge is wither'd from the lake, And no birds sing. Keats 3 CO2: an inorganic molecule Poses difficult problems for global climate stability and energy produc(on. Arrhenius predicts Global warming •  Doubling of CO2 from industry should give a 3-4°C rise in global temperature. (1897) Sun atmospheric CO2 Infrared emiLed from the Earth Earth Nobel 1903 5 An uncommon book. 6 ...but considers warming a good thing •  We often hear lamentations that the coal stored up in the earth is wasted by the present generation without any thought of the future. We may find ... consolation that .. there is good mixed with the evil. By the increasing percentage of [CO2] in the atmosphere, we may...enjoy ages with more equable and better climates, especially as regards the colder regions of the earth, ages when the earth will bring forth more abundant crops than at present, for the benefit of a rapidly propagating mankind. Arrhenius, Worlds in the Making, Chicago, 1908. 7 Ångström's ObjecNon •  Ångström (1900): there is already sufficient CO2 to completely absorb terrestrial IR so adding more CO2 will have liLle effect. •  Kaplan (1952) countered that the atmosphere had to be considered layer by layer. At high alNtude and low P, the p(CO2) is insufficient to absorb the IR emiLed from that layer; heat transfer from below is thus a factor. 8 More SophisNcated picture •  No GHGs: Equilib. achieved without interference. •  With GHGs: Atmosphere absorbs and re-­‐radiates IR layer by layer unNl we reach the top of the radiaNve atmosphere when the p(CO2) is too low to interere any more. Chem. Rev. 2015, 115, 3682 No GHGs With GHGs 9 Atmospheric 'Windows' •  Certain wavelengths are unaffected by GHGs •  Here the 'No GHGs' picture sNll applies •  These 'windows' shown in blue opposite. •  But CO2 blocks emission maxima for 300K IR Max @ 300K 10 Atmospheric 'Windows' •  GHGs that i) absorb in these windows & ii) that remain in the atmosphere longest have the highest GW effect. •  CF4: 50kyr lifeNme & absorbs in window Max @ 300K 11 Mauna Loa CO2 Record from 1957 400 Rate of rise still increasing 320 May 2017 level 410 ppm The Keeling Curve 12 Mauna Loa CO2 Record 407 • OscillaNon results from N Hemisphere Fall/Spring VegetaNon Cycle. • 410 ppm already reached versus 280 preindustrial value. • Other gases contribute, too NOAA 13 Suess Effect: decrease in δ13C & 14C: Fossil fuel emissions are depleted in 13C and do not contain 14C. The CO2 really is from fossil fuel. 13C δ13C = 13C/12C sample -­‐1 X 1000 13C/12C reference 1975 hLp:// See hLp:// 2014 14 Carbon Emissions 2015 level in Gt/yr Mainly Fossil fuels and cement manufacture 15 CO2 and ΔT Clima(c Effects 16 Robert A. Rohde Global Warming Art Sun's influx 75% transmiLed Earth's loss 15-­‐30% trans. Earth's temp. decided by balance of input vs. output Total AbsorbNon Water Vapor Carbon Dioxide O2 + O3 CH4 N2O Rayleigh ScaLering 17 Energy Balance pre 1980 in WaLs/m2 If any uncompensated change occurs, the temp will change. Hints of Warming in early work •  US Weather Bureau finds temps. had risen since 19th cent. but considers it a natural fluctuaNon (1934) •  1940-­‐80: a slight decline in temps. seems to confirm the natural cycle idea. •  1980-­‐2000 a sharp rise in temps. brings warming into the news again. •  2000-­‐2014: a flat temp profile gives ammuniNon to the climate doubters •  2014-­‐present: temp. rise resumes. 19 Global Temperature 1880 -­‐ 1980 No Worries Cooling even considered a risk NASA 20 Global Temperature 1880 -­‐ 2000 21 Global Temperature 1880 -­‐ 2000 CriNcs object: heat island effect Global T hard to measure Why is rise so irregular Ocean gets much of the heat 22 PosiNon in 2012 flat line Irregular advance permits doubt as to reality of problem. sharp rise 1980-2000 slow rise 23 El Nino/ La Nina •  La Nina: cold surface water off Peru •  El Nino: hot •  Affects heat transfer between atms. & Ocean 24 Current CondiNons A decaying La Nina 25 Hiatus now over. 1940-­‐80 comparison Land ΔT 2x Land+Sea 26 US Climate Special Report Climatecentral.org Feb 2017 the most lopsided month ever with 49 to 1 raNo of new highs to new lows in the U.S. Extreme events are most affected •Extreme events are most affected with ΔT shir to higher T •IniNal assessment: low ΔT events much rarer; high, more common •Assumes no change in width of distribuNon 28 Actual DistribuNon broader and •Wider moving to more posiNve ΔT distribuNon predicted by climate models •Means high T events specially enhanced •Low T also occur Analysis of observaNons: Hansen, Sato, PNAS 2012, E2415 29 Biggest changes for extreme events ‡ ‡Assumes that the distribuNon itself does not broaden Jim Hansen •  Global temperature change, Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al. PNAS, 103, 14288-­‐14293, 2006 Jim Hansen has been a major recent voice in warning us about climate change "the Earth's av. global surface temp. has already risen 0.8°C since 1880, and is now warming by more than 0.1° per decade." PNAS = Proceedings of the NaNonal Academy of Sciences (Available online at library website under e-­‐journals) 31 IPCC -­‐ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change •  ‎ •  assesses the scienNfic, technical and socio-­‐ economic factors relevant to the risk of human-­‐induced climate change •  Reports every few years – last in 2014 •  Nobel (Peace) 2007 32 The Vostok AntarcNc Ice Core •  In 1985, an Ice Core spanning 150 kyr gave CO2 and temp. changes over one Ice Age cycle. •  The results showed a close associaNon of pCO2 and temperature. •  AssociaNon ≠ causaNon but this possibility certainly raised. •  Deeper cores conNnue to be extracted & studied—5 ice age cycles now covered AntarcNc = Southern conNnent; ArcNc = Northern Polar Sea. 33 Present Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature Present Past 400 ky BP CO2 34 Vostok base Changes in Temp., CH4 & CO2 correlate over 400,000 yrs 2012 CO2 level Interglacial 1957 0°C 1750 -­‐4°C -­‐8°C Ice Age Vostok Ice Core Present 35 Temperature Anomaly (°C) Temp., CO2, & Sea: 800ky BP to Preindustrial 2 0 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE Range -5 to +1°C Holocene -2 -4 Ice Age 800 800ky BP 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 kyr BP CO2 CONCENTRATION CO2 (ppm) 300 Range 180-300ppm 250 200 800 Sea Level (m) 50 0 700 600 Past SEA LEVEL 0 Present Range: ca. 300ft -50 -100 800 Hansen 2017 700 600 500 400 300 Time (Thousands of Years Before Present) 200 100 0 Modern change in CO2 •Rise is unprecedented in 800 kyr •180=>300 ppm is equiv. to +8°C & a mile of ice over New Haven • Graph shows CO2 over 800 kyr Source: NOAA Mar 30 2018: 410.03 ppm 37 ClimaNc History of the earth PETM interglacial maximum T prior to 2000 Minimum T of Last ice age Myr BP LiLle ice Age 38 Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) •  55Myr BP: a spike in ΔT •  ΔT = +6 °C & back again over 20,000 yrs •  Spike also in 12C/13C linked to rapid injecNon of C (methane, CO2...?) •  Two 1000 yr events 20,000 yr apart •  A few exNncNons in marine organisms but massive poleward movement of organisms •  PETM C release (150 kyr recovery Nme) comparable to expected over 2kyr under BAU Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2011. 39, 489–516. Nature 2012, 484, 87. Zeebe, Phil Trans A, 371: 20120006, 2013 39 PETM versus Anthropocene PETM much slower change than expected for Anthropocene Note much higher start for PETM Phil Trans R Soc A 371: 20120006 40 Not just CO2 41 Not just CO2 •  SF6 has 23,900 Nmes the GW effect of CO2 (100 yr period) •  Atmospheric lifeNme >800 yr (est.) •  The compound has either been banned (EU) or big efforts made to stop leaks (US) •  SNll very liLle in the atmosphere 42 Best es(mates of global radia(ve forcing 2005 * Big error bars Changes already taking place The canary in the mine Long term trends most useful. 44 NaNonal ClimaNc Data Center •  Jan. 2015: U.S. temp. 33.0°F, +2.9°F above 20th cent. average & warmest ever recorded*. •  Global 2014 air & sea temps were +0.69°C above the 20th cent. av. a new record*. •  We have to go back to 1977 to find an air temp. result below the 20th cent. average. *Since records began in 1880; and there wasn't even an El Nino to raise the temps. 45 Retreat of Glaciers Glacier Bay NaNonal Park, Alaska 1941 2004 Ice retreat: 7 km Ice thickness: decrease by 800 m N. circumpolar belt is the most affected region 46 2012 Sea Ice: worst decline to date ArcNc Sea Ice Extent Average 1981-­‐2010 95% of observaNons expected within grey band (2 std. deviaNons from 20th cent values). 2014 2012 March Sept 47 MelNng Permafrost Trees lean over Buildings sag Roads buckle Oil pipelines a problem because the oil is 'warm' •  Methane release •  •  •  •  Drunken trees 48 BuLerfly Species move Poleward •  Poleward shift of 63% of Europe's butterfly species •  By: 35 – 240 km •  3% have opposite shift •  Map for: Pararge aegeria 1915-39 (black) 1949-69 (red) 1970-97 (blue) Nature, 399, 579, 1999 49 Sunspots 1900 2000 • Lower sunspot numbers linked with lower solar output, perhaps part of the reason for flat temp record, less future problems with50 climate change? Sunspots and Climate •  Small insolation effect (ca. +0.1%) at max. •  Maunder & Dalton minima => colder climate •  Maunder min. colder by ~2°F in W. Europe (e.g. Great Famine of 1315–1317) C-­‐14 ProducNon a Proxy for Solar AcNvity •  Sunspots cause changes in the solar system's magneNc field and in the cosmic ray flux, and hence to the producNon of C-­‐14 •  The C-­‐14 level with Nme very well known from C daNng calibraNon from 14C data Cooling Effect of Maunder Minimum? •  Frozen River Thames at London Frost Fair 1675 The last frost fair was in 1814; the river has not frozen this way since. 53 Recent Sea Level Changes milli-­‐ meters 75% of rise from polar ice & glacial melt Nat Geosci 2013, 6, 549. Measured by satellite alNmetry Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 884, 2012: NE US parNcularly vulnerable Cronin, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 56 (2012) 11. 54 Feedbacks Vicious circle 55 Water Vapor Rises •  Rise in water vapor a potential feedback loop. •  Water is a powerful greenhouse gas •  But more clouds could save the day. 56 Ice-­‐albedo feedback Effect •  Albedo = reflecNon coeff. from Earth's surface •  High for sea ice ~35%, low for open sea ~8% •  As sea ice retreats, more energy absorbed by Ocean •  Greenland shows albedo feedback on land Example 1990-­‐2010 57 Methane Hydrate Release? •  •  •  •  Clathrate structure 1015 m3 total globally 1m3 releases >150m3 of CH4. CH4 62 x CO2 greenhouse gas 58 Chem. Rev. 2007, 107, 4133-­‐4151 Latest analysis of CH4 release •  ΔT = +2° by 2035 (BAU) or 2045 (low emission) •  Cost of envtl. damage estd. at $60 trn NPV.1 •  Sudden huge-­‐scale release a factor in the Triassic mass exNncNon.2 Methane bubbling from a lake in Alaska 1. Nature, 2013, 499, 401; 2. Science, 2011, 333, 430. 59 Fire or Ice •  Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice. From what I've tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To say that for destrucNon ice Is also great And would suffice. Frost 60 Past crises History is destiny 61 Sahara Desert: Recently Formed Well watered during Ice Age Tassili 62 A Wet Sahara in the Past •  Tassili: rock carving of cattle. (8000 BP?) •  Today: 10 mm rain 63 64 Tassili Fresco •  Gathering grain? 5-6kyr BP 65 Neolithic Arrowheads in the Sahara 66 Timescale of Changes Slow versus Fast •  Much easier to adapt to slow changes •  Eocene (55-35 My BP): –  Fossils of subtropical and tropical plants found in Greenland and Alaska. –  Tropical rainforests as far north as the Pacific Northwest and Europe. –  Palm trees in Alaska –  No Polar Ice Caps 67 Neolithic RevoluNon •  Some authors have traced the CO2 rise to this. •  HunNng/gathering => agriculture •  Starts ~11ky BP at various places 11ky 3.5ky 4 ky 5ky Jared Diamond The World Un(l Yesterday 5ky 9ky 4750 BP 9ky 68 Past PredicNons Valid or not? 69 PredicNons: valid or not? •  PredicNons of future trends needed to decide level of resources to give to climate remediaNon and prevenNon of emissions. •  Check reliability of such predicNons from past predicNons where we know what the answer was. 70 Malthus •  Thomas Malthus (1766-­‐1834) compared the unprecedentedly rapid rise in the BriNsh populaNon with the slower growth in agricultural food producNon: –  "The power of populaNon is indefinitely greater than the power in the Earth to produce subsistence for man" –  Malthus' ideas helped Darwin formulate natural selecNon 71 False Alarm •  Malthusian predicNon of widespread starvaNon did not come about so far. –  big increase in agricultural producNon from enclosures, widespread introducNon of scienNfic farming methods –  increased importaNon of food from abroad, facilitated by the improvement in transportaNon methods. –  Huge increase in naNonal wealth from the Industrial RevoluNon pays for imports of food 72 Jevons Paradox •  William Jevons (1835-­‐1882) pointed out in The Coal Ques(on (London, 1865) that increased efficiency in the use of coal would not reduce use because the economic expansion that coal made possible would vastly increase the demand. •  This 'Jevons paradox' has been verified b in later work on many other cases. [JM Polimeni, The Jevons Paradox, Earthscan, London, 2008] 73 ParNal False Alarm •  Coal use did go up as Jevons predicted •  Even so, exhausNon of coal reserves was averted because of –  the addiNonal contribuNon of imported oil to domesNc coal as primary energy source during the 20th century. –  improved coal extracNon procedures –  new coal discoveries –  efficiencies introduced at all levels 74 Jevons Paradox for LighNng The authors predict that the introducNon of solid-­‐state lighNng will increase the demand and consequent energy consumpNon J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys. 43 (2010) 354001 75 'Club of Rome' (1972) •  In 'Limits to Growth', the Club of Rome – people from business & academia – argued: The world is running out of raw materials and society may collapse in the 21st cent. • Report did not consider expansion of reserves (e.g. unconvenNonal oil, gas) •  A 2009 analysis1 concludes that "30 years of historical data compares favorably with key features… [of Limits to Growth] ‘standard run’ scenario, which predicts collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Cent." •  Outcome: nothing near collapse so far. 1. hLp:// files/files/plje.pdf 76 Hubbert and Peak Oil •  M. King Hubbert (1903 –1989) was a geoscienNst at Shell research, Houston. •  Made important contribuNons to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak oil theory. 77 U.S. ProducNon vs Time Peak oil: 1970 Hubbert's curve 78 Extreme Responses •  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich blasted a climate change speech by Secretary of State John Kerry, calling him "delusional" and for him to resign. [Feb 2014] •  Climate science doubter Sen. James M. Inhofe (Rep-­‐ Okla.) & family built an igloo on a cold day in Washington DC to mock global warming. •  Climate Change SkepNcism Is Highest In Japan, Britain and U.S., Poll* Finds. [huffingtonpost.com] Believers are only 58, 63 & 65%, respecNvely. •  Rush Limbaugh claims that one cannot believe in both God and climate change. •  Fred Upton (Rep., Mich.) says EPA’s efforts to regulate carbon emissions as “an unconsNtuNonal power grab” *Do you believe that the climate has changed significantly in the past 20 years? 79 Future Effects of Climate Change Predic(ons by computer climate modeling – an inexact science 80 Future? •We can't go back to the 18th century •Maybe we will be forced to return closer to their energy usage levels •2013 was the 200th anniv. of the publicaNon of P&P sold for $68,500 in Dec 2012. 81 Climate Models Prediction is hard— specially about the future (Yogi Berra) 82 Simplest Model Gives a value of 15°C, not too bad. hLps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model 83 More SophisNcated Model 84 Best predicNons of ΔT with Nme Red = BAU; Green = mid-­‐level; Blue = severe but reasonable adjustments. Source: NOAA 85 Climate SensiNvity •  Predicted effect on the global temperature that would follow from a doubling of the CO2 from preindustrial levels (280 => 560 ppm) •  Best esNmate is 2 – 4.5°C range with 3° most likely. •  Similar to Arrhenius' 3°C from 1897. •  One study calls for a 1° higher range based on their modeling of clouds.* *Science, 2016, 352, 224. 86 General Climate Models •  Computer based modeling of physics/chem., & biology –  includes feedbacks, past fossil fuel usage, solar variability... •  Match model with 20th cent. to opNmize –  1950 onward requires fossil CO2 to match data •  Predict to 2100 –  AssumpNons needed about policy decisions. 87 General Climate Models •  A scenarios assume economic goals favored over environmental •  B scenarios assume the reverse •  1 scenarios assume globalizaNon (e.g. educaNon of women => smaller families) •  2 assumes regional stasis •  Suffix FI = fossil intensive; B = balanced; T = technology fixes Our current situaNon is A1FI 88 Global temperatures 1000 AD to 2100 Nonzero chance of catastrophic change 5°C Big uncertainty: +1.5 to +6°C in 2100 Arrhenius 2° limit for safety 0°C 1000 AD IPCC 2000 AD 89 1900-­‐2100 Big uncertainNes Zero emission post 2000 90 Most probable outcome •  At least +2.8°C at 2100 on BAU basis. •  >560 ppm CO2 by 2100 on all but 3 models •  It would cost an esNmated 2% of GNP to limit the rise to 2° according to a UK report •  This assumes efficient distribuNon of funds •  So far, pork-­‐barrel poliNcs has been a big factor in funding, for example corn-­‐EtOH. CE = AD (i.e. the year) 91 Global CO2 level 1000 AD to 2100 1000 ppm 400 ppm 1000 AD 2000 AD Big uncertainty in CO2: 550 to 1000 ppm in 2100 IPCC 92 Fossil fuel derived CO2 will stay for centuries IPCC 93 Largest uncertainty in models: Clouds •  PredicNons about cloud response to climate change are uncertain •  Lindzen (MIT) thinks more clouds will form and save the day •  This is a minority view, however. 94 Depends on type of clouds Upper levels of atmosphere able to radiate IR into space. cooling warming Upper levels of atmosphere unable to radiate neutral 95 Computa(onally predicted temp changes for early and late 21st cent. vs. 1980–1999 ConKnents Warm 50% more than oceans What's to be done? Topic 5 Main Approaches •  Geoengineering –  ArNficial aerosols, orbiNng mirrors etc •  Carbon Capture & Storage –  Extract CO2 from power plants & bury it •  Move from Fossil to alternaNve energy –  Solar, wind, Ndal •  ConservaNon –  All adopt E efficiency of Switz. or Japan •  AdaptaNon –  Tidal barriers, crop protecNon, saving H2O.. CT Efforts •  Guilford has a coastal resilience plan set up by Prof Felson (School of Architecture) –  Management of coastal real estate and structures –  Shoreline protecNon –  Roadway alteraNons –  ProtecNon or replacement of water supply wells and sepNc systems hLp:// -­‐content/uploads/community-­‐coastal-­‐resilience-­‐plan-­‐Report-­‐of-­‐ OpNons.pdf Yale efforts •  Yale emissions down 24% since 2005. •  Yale joins Johns Hopkins & other peers in affirming importance of GHG emission curbs. •  Pledge of C neutrality by 2050. •  350,000 sqr PV array at W Campus biggest in CT. •  Yale Forum on Religion & Ecology. –  Raises ethical aspects of climate change See Pres. Salovey's statement on Climate Change, June 5, 2017. Role of Religion •  The Yale forum has gathered together climate change statements of 15 different religions. •  For example, Pope Francis has just published the first-­‐ever encyclical on the topic •  Need to balance people's needs with envtl. stewardship •  Dalai Lama cal...
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